WTA Hong KongWTA 250Round of 32hardbest of three sets
Fernandez vs Kenin: prediction and tips
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Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Leylah Fernandez75%
Sofia Kenin25%
Elo: L. Fernandez 85% · S. Kenin 15%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 L. Fernandez53%
2:1 L. Fernandez21%
2:1 S. Kenin13%
2:0 S. Kenin14%
First set
Leylah Fernandez70%
Sofia Kenin30%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 20.0 · 50%market (no margin): 52%
The 20.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 21.9
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 73% | 27% | 72% |
| 18.5 | 65% | 35% | 64% |
| 19.5 | 57% | 43% | 56% |
| 20.5 | 50% | 51% | 49% |
| 21.5 | 44% | 56% | 44% |
| 22.5 | 38% | 62% | 38% |
| 23.5 | 34% | 66% | 34% |
Sample: 1,725 matches
Games handicap
L. Fernandez −4.550%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes22%
tour average 22%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Fernandez | Tour | S. Kenin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 59% | 56% | |
| Return points won | 43% | 40% | |
| Service games held | 70% | 64% | |
| Breaks of serve | 34% | 26% | |
| Aces per service game | 0.24 | 0.16 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.41 | 0.38 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 13% | 12% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 4/17 | 4/10 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 63% | |
| Matches in the sample | 58 | 35 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Leylah Fernandez
- 01/11/26LDiana Shnaider#11WTA Tokyo · F4:6 7:5 2:6
- 31/10/26WKamilla Rakhimova#44WTA Tokyo · SF7:5 6:3
- 29/10/26WElise Mertens#14WTA Tokyo · R166:2 7:6
- 27/10/26WHimeno Sakatsume#129WTA Tokyo · R326:2 6:4
- 25/10/26LElena Rybakina#1WTA Ningbo · F2:6 2:6
- 24/10/26WMarie Bouzková#23WTA Ningbo · SF6:3 7:5
- 23/10/26WEkaterina Alexandrova#32WTA Ningbo · QF4:6 6:2 6:1
- 21/10/26WAliaksandra Sasnovich#101WTA Ningbo · R167:5 6:7 6:3
- 19/10/26WElise Mertens#14WTA Ningbo · R322:6 6:3 7:5
- 15/10/26LJeļena Ostapenko#25WTA Wuhan · R161:6 6:1 4:6
Sofia Kenin
- 27/10/26LKaitlin Quevedo#71WTA Guangzhou · R324:6 7:6 4:6
- 20/10/26LKayla Day#121WTA Osaka · R323:6 2:6
- 18/10/26LSinja Kraus#92WTA Osaka · Q26:7 4:6
- 17/10/26WMei Yamaguchi#282WTA Osaka · Q12:6 6:0 6:1
- 10/10/26LKamilla Rakhimova#44WTA Wuhan · Q10:6 3:6
- 01/10/26LAshlyn Krueger#41WTA Beijing · R1283:6 3:6
- 22/09/26LAlina Charaeva#82WTA Seoul · R326:3 6:7 4:6
- 02/09/26LJessica Pegula#5WTA US Open · R643:6 1:6
- 31/08/26WVenus Williams#597WTA US Open · R1286:2 7:6
- 16/08/26LMarta Kostyuk#10WTA Cincinnati · R646:4 3:6 5:7
Elo over the last year
Leylah FernandezSofia Kenin
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Fernandez | S. Kenin | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 22–1658% | 4–1818% |
| Clay | 8–753% | 2–529% |
| Grass | 1–420% | 2–433% |
Head to head
L. Fernandez 0–2 S. Kenin
- 21/09/23Winner: S. Kenin4:6 7:6 1:6
- 03/09/20Winner: S. Kenin4:6 3:6