WTA TokyoWTA 500Round of 16hardbest of three sets
Fernandez vs Mertens: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 13h 8mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Leylah Fernandez49%
Elise Mertens52%
Elo: L. Fernandez 54% · E. Mertens 46%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 L. Fernandez31%
2:1 L. Fernandez19%
2:1 E. Mertens19%
2:0 E. Mertens32%
First set
Leylah Fernandez50%
Elise Mertens51%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no63%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 52%market (no margin): 49%
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 69% | 31% | 64% |
| 19.5 | 61% | 39% | 56% |
| 20.5 | 54% | 46% | 49% |
| 21.5 | 48% | 52% | 44% |
| 22.5 | 43% | 57% | 38% |
| 23.5 | 38% | 62% | 34% |
| 24.5 | 36% | 64% | 32% |
Sample: 2,328 matches
Games handicap
E. Mertens −0.550%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes25%
tour average 22%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Fernandez | Tour | E. Mertens | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 59% | 56% | 60% |
| Return points won | 43% | 44% | 44% |
| Service games held | 71% | 63% | 71% |
| Breaks of serve | 34% | 37% | 36% |
| Aces per service game | 0.23 | 0.39 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.41 | 0.40 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 12% | 5% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 3/16 | 4/6 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 74% | |
| Matches in the sample | 58 | 52 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Leylah Fernandez
- 27/10/26WHimeno Sakatsume#114WTA Tokyo · R326:2 6:4
- 25/10/26LElena Rybakina#1WTA Ningbo · F2:6 2:6
- 24/10/26WMarie Bouzková#24WTA Ningbo · SF6:3 7:5
- 23/10/26WEkaterina Alexandrova#33WTA Ningbo · QF4:6 6:2 6:1
- 21/10/26WAliaksandra Sasnovich#112WTA Ningbo · R167:5 6:7 6:3
- 19/10/26WElise Mertens#14WTA Ningbo · R322:6 6:3 7:5
- 15/10/26LJeļena Ostapenko#26WTA Wuhan · R161:6 6:1 4:6
- 14/10/26WHan Shi#162WTA Wuhan · R326:3 6:4
- 12/10/26WEkaterina Alexandrova#33WTA Wuhan · R646:4 3:6 6:3
- 03/10/26LKamilla Rakhimova#66WTA Beijing · R642:6 6:4 3:6
Elise Mertens
- 26/10/26WMoyuka Uchijima#121WTA Tokyo · R326:4 6:2
- 19/10/26LLeylah Fernandez#23WTA Ningbo · R326:2 3:6 5:7
- 13/10/26LDaria Snigur#40WTA Wuhan · R644:6 5:7
- 10/10/26LQinwen Zheng#22WTA Beijing · SF5:7 2:6
- 09/10/26WIga Świątek#8WTA Beijing · QF7:6 6:3
- 07/10/26WCoco Gauff#5WTA Beijing · R166:3 6:3
- 05/10/26WJeļena Ostapenko#26WTA Beijing · R326:2 3:6 6:3
- 03/10/26WKatie Volynets#81WTA Beijing · R646:0 4:6 7:5
- 25/09/26LMaja Chwalińska#11WTA Singapore · QF2:6 2:6
- 05/09/26LNaomi Osaka#18WTA US Open · R323:6 6:3 5:7
Elo over the last year
Leylah FernandezElise Mertens
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Fernandez | E. Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 22–1658% | 19–1359% |
| Clay | 8–753% | 5–456% |
| Grass | 1–420% | 7–464% |
Head to head
L. Fernandez 2–2 E. Mertens
- 19/10/26Winner: L. Fernandez2:6 6:3 7:5
- 16/02/25Winner: E. Mertens2:6 2:6
- 19/09/23Winner: L. Fernandez6:3 6:4
- 09/02/21Winner: E. Mertens1:6 3:6
Road through the tournament
Leylah Fernandez
- 27/10/26WHimeno Sakatsume#114WTA Tokyo · R326:2 6:4
Elise Mertens
- 26/10/26WMoyuka Uchijima#121WTA Tokyo · R326:4 6:2