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WTA NingboWTA 500Finalhardbest of three sets

Rybakina vs Fernandez 2:0: result and our tips

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Elena RybakinaWTA #1Elo 2235hard 2248
2:0final6:2 6:2
Leylah FernandezWTA #23Elo 1955hard 1950

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Lost63%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Fernandez: 8 matches in a row over 18.5 games; Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Rybakina 16 of 20, Fernandez 14 of 20 (tour average 64%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: RybakinaWon77%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 77%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Rybakina won 9 of the last 10 matches

  • 1st Set Winner: RybakinaWon70%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Rybakina: 4 matches in a row winning the first set; Rybakina won the first set in 4 of their 5 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 20.5Lost48%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Rybakina: 6 matches in a row over 20.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Elena Rybakina75%
Leylah Fernandez25%

Elo: E. Rybakina 85% · L. Fernandez 15%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 E. Rybakina53%
2:1 E. Rybakina21%
2:1 L. Fernandez12%
2:0 L. Fernandez14%

First set

Elena Rybakina70%
Leylah Fernandez31%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no67%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 56%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.573%27%72%
18.564%36%64%
19.556%44%56%
20.549%51%49%
21.544%56%44%
22.538%62%38%
23.534%66%34%

Sample: 1,687 matches

Games handicap

E. Rybakina −4.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes22%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 16 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Elena RybakinaLeylah Fernandez
3Aces2
2Double faults3
67%First serves in60%
73%First-serve points won59%
56%Second-serve points won39%
4/5Break points converted0/4
8/8Service games held4/8
67%Service points won51%
49%Return points won33%
59Total points won41

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

E. RybakinaTourL. Fernandez
Service points won64%56%59%
Return points won43%44%43%
Service games held82%63%71%
Breaks of serve33%37%34%
Aces per service game0.560.23
Double faults per game0.270.42
Sets with a tie-break8%12%
Tie-breaks won8/143/16
Wins in straight sets63%65%
Matches in the sample7157

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Elena Rybakina

Leylah Fernandez

Elo over the last year

Elena RybakinaLeylah Fernandez

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

E. RybakinaL. Fernandez
Hard court44–885%22–1559%
Clay10–377%8–753%
Grass3–350%1–420%

Head to head

E. Rybakina 3–2 L. Fernandez

  • 17/04/26Winner: E. Rybakina6:7 6:4 7:6
  • 23/10/25Winner: E. Rybakina6:4 6:3
  • 26/07/25Winner: L. Fernandez7:6 6:7 6:7
  • 15/08/24Winner: L. Fernandez6:3 6:7 4:6
  • 15/02/24Winner: E. Rybakina6:4 6:2

Road through the tournament

Elena Rybakina

Leylah Fernandez

See also