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WTA TokyoWTA 500Semifinalhardbest of three sets

Fernandez vs Rakhimova 2:0: result and our tips

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Leylah FernandezWTA #18Elo 1969hard 1964
2:0final7:5 6:3
Kamilla RakhimovaWTA #44Elo 1821hard 1810

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Won65%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Fernandez 14 of 20, Rakhimova 16 of 20 (tour average 64%); Rakhimova: 6 matches in a row over 18.5 games

Other tips

  • Match Winner: FernandezWon74%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 74%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Fernandez won 8 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Leylah Fernandez75%
Kamilla Rakhimova26%

Elo: L. Fernandez 71% · K. Rakhimova 29%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Fernandez52%
2:1 L. Fernandez21%
2:1 K. Rakhimova13%
2:0 K. Rakhimova14%

First set

Leylah Fernandez69%
Kamilla Rakhimova31%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 50%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.574%26%72%
18.565%35%64%
19.557%43%56%
20.550%50%49%
21.545%55%44%
22.538%62%38%
23.534%66%34%

Sample: 1,743 matches

Games handicap

L. Fernandez −4.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 21.0out · 21 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Leylah FernandezKamilla Rakhimova
9Aces2
2Double faults0
67%First serves in65%
65%First-serve points won63%
54%Second-serve points won41%
2/6Break points converted3/5
9/11Service games held6/10
62%Service points won55%
45%Return points won39%
76Total points won64

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. FernandezTourK. Rakhimova
Service points won59%56%55%
Return points won43%44%46%
Service games held71%63%64%
Breaks of serve34%37%39%
Aces per service game0.230.15
Double faults per game0.420.44
Sets with a tie-break13%14%
Tie-breaks won4/179/22
Wins in straight sets65%51%
Matches in the sample5865

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Leylah Fernandez

Kamilla Rakhimova

Elo over the last year

Leylah FernandezKamilla Rakhimova

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. FernandezK. Rakhimova
Hard court22–1658%30–2159%
Clay8–753%2–529%
Grass1–420%3–443%

Head to head

L. Fernandez 1–1 K. Rakhimova

  • 03/10/26Winner: K. Rakhimova2:6 6:4 3:6
  • 09/10/24Winner: L. Fernandez6:2 5:7 7:6

Road through the tournament

Leylah Fernandez

Kamilla Rakhimova

See also