ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Quarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying
Gea vs Davidovich Fokina: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 23h 20mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Arthur Gea46%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina54%
Elo: A. Gea 48% · A. Davidovich Fokina 52%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 A. Gea27%
2:1 A. Gea20%
2:1 A. Davidovich Fokina20%
2:0 A. Davidovich Fokina33%
First set
Arthur Gea47%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina53%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.5 · 52%market (no margin): 51%
The 23.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.6
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 69% | 31% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 63% | 38% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 55% | 45% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 48% | 52% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 44% | 56% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 41% | 59% | 35% |
| 26.5 | 36% | 64% | 30% |
Sample: 5,354 matches
Games handicap
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina −1.549%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes47%
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Gea | Tour | A. Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 64% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 40% | 38% | 36% |
| Service games held | 81% | 76% | 84% |
| Breaks of serve | 27% | 24% | 21% |
| Aces per service game | 0.47 | 0.37 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.31 | 0.13 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 20% | 23% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 23/37 | 20/32 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 68% | |
| Matches in the sample | 73 | 56 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Arthur Gea
- 13/10/26WJakub Menšík#15ATP Shanghai · R167:6 6:4
- 11/10/26WBen Shelton#4ATP Shanghai · R327:6 7:6
- 09/10/26WUgo Humbert#32ATP Shanghai · R646:4 3:6 6:1
- 07/10/26WJaime Faria#60ATP Shanghai · R1286:7 6:1 6:2
- 02/10/26LHubert Hurkacz#34ATP Beijing · R166:7 7:6 2:6
- 30/09/26WZhizhen Zhang#166ATP Beijing · R326:4 6:3
- 29/09/26WTomáš Macháč#75ATP Beijing · Q26:3 6:4
- 28/09/26WRigele TE#849ATP Beijing · Q16:2 6:3
- 07/09/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#41ATP US Open · R166:3 7:6 6:7 6:7 4:6
- 05/09/26WMichael Zheng#94ATP US Open · R327:6 3:6 4:6 6:3 6:2
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
- 13/10/26WHubert Hurkacz#34ATP Shanghai · R161:6 6:3 7:6
- 11/10/26WFrances Tiafoe#10ATP Shanghai · R327:6 4:6 7:6
- 09/10/26WJenson Brooksby#102ATP Shanghai · R646:1 6:3
- 01/10/26LMatteo Berrettini#46ATP Tokyo · R326:1 6:7 4:6
- 29/09/26WHubert Hurkacz#34ATP Chengdu · F6:4 7:6
- 28/09/26WNikoloz Basilashvili#124ATP Chengdu · SF4:6 6:4 6:3
- 27/09/26WAlexandre Muller#133ATP Chengdu · QF6:1 7:5
- 26/09/26WJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#55ATP Chengdu · R166:4 6:4
- 16/07/26LAlex Molcan#84ATP Umag · QF6:3 1:6 2:6
- 15/07/26WMarco Trungelliti#90ATP Umag · R166:4 7:5
Elo over the last year
Arthur GeaAlejandro Davidovich Fokina
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Gea | A. Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 36–980% | 23–1168% |
| Clay | 12–860% | 5–550% |
| Grass | 5–456% | 9–375% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Arthur Gea
- 07/10/26WJaime Faria#60ATP Shanghai · R1286:7 6:1 6:2
- 09/10/26WUgo Humbert#32ATP Shanghai · R646:4 3:6 6:1
- 11/10/26WBen Shelton#4ATP Shanghai · R327:6 7:6
- 13/10/26WJakub Menšík#15ATP Shanghai · R167:6 6:4
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
- 09/10/26WJenson Brooksby#102ATP Shanghai · R646:1 6:3
- 11/10/26WFrances Tiafoe#10ATP Shanghai · R327:6 4:6 7:6
- 13/10/26WHubert Hurkacz#34ATP Shanghai · R161:6 6:3 7:6