Challenger Villa MariaChallenger 50Round of 16claybest of three sets
La Serna vs Casanova: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 13mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Juan Manuel La Serna68%
Hernan Casanova32%
Elo: J. La Serna 58% · H. Casanova 42%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 J. La Serna45%
2:1 J. La Serna23%
2:1 H. Casanova15%
2:0 H. Casanova18%
First set
Juan Manuel La Serna63%
Hernan Casanova37%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%
The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 21.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 72% | 28% | 76% |
| 18.5 | 63% | 37% | 68% |
| 19.5 | 56% | 44% | 59% |
| 20.5 | 51% | 50% | 52% |
| 21.5 | 44% | 56% | 46% |
| 22.5 | 39% | 61% | 40% |
| 23.5 | 37% | 63% | 36% |
Sample: 4,301 matches
Games handicap
J. La Serna −3.551%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes19%
tour average 27%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| J. La Serna | Tour | H. Casanova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 59% | 62% | 58% |
| Return points won | 44% | 38% | 43% |
| Service games held | 71% | 76% | 69% |
| Breaks of serve | 35% | 24% | 34% |
| Aces per service game | 0.18 | 0.09 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.26 | 0.11 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 8% | 7% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 6/13 | 3/6 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 48% | 68% | |
| Matches in the sample | 65 | 39 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Juan Manuel La Serna
- 03/11/26WMateo Del PinoChallenger Villa Maria · R324:6 6:0 7:5
- 27/10/26LNick Hardt#296Challenger Guayaquil · R323:6 6:3 1:6
- 23/10/26LMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida#197Challenger Cali · QF4:6 6:4 5:7
- 21/10/26WJuan Bautista Torres#314Challenger Cali · R166:4 6:2
- 20/10/26WHugo Dellien#107Challenger Cali · R326:3 2:0
- 17/10/26LHugo Dellien#107Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · SF4:6 3:6
- 16/10/26WFranco Roncadelli#261Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · QF6:1 6:7 6:4
- 15/10/26WGuido Ivan Justo#186Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R166:1 0:0
- 13/10/26WHernan Casanova#438Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R326:3 6:4
- 10/09/26LLukas Neumayer#155Challenger Tulln · R165:7 7:6 1:6
Hernan Casanova
- 03/11/26WThiago Cigarran#595Challenger Villa Maria · R321:6 7:5 6:4
- 19/10/26LGonzalo Bueno#198Challenger Cali · R326:2 3:6 2:6
- 13/10/26LJuan Manuel La Serna#254Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R323:6 4:6
- 12/10/26WWilson Leite#695Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · Q26:2 6:4
- 11/10/26WAlexandre BobiereChallenger Santa Cruz 2 · Q16:0 6:0
- 05/10/26LBernardo Munk MesaChallenger Antofagasta · Q21:6 6:2 4:6
- 04/10/26WWilson Leite#695Challenger Antofagasta · Q16:3 3:6 6:4
- 29/09/26LGustavo Heide#112Challenger Curitiba · R322:6 1:6
- 22/09/26LMurkel Dellien#450Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R323:6 4:6
- 04/08/26LYannick Theodor Alexandrescou#824Challenger Plovdiv 2 · R326:7 3:6
Elo over the last year
Juan Manuel La SernaHernan Casanova
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| J. La Serna | H. Casanova | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 2–167% | 0–0 |
| Clay | 40–2265% | 22–1756% |
Head to head
J. La Serna 1–0 H. Casanova
- 13/10/26Winner: J. La Serna6:3 6:4
Road through the tournament
Juan Manuel La Serna
- 03/11/26WMateo Del PinoChallenger Villa Maria · R324:6 6:0 7:5
Hernan Casanova
- 03/11/26WThiago Cigarran#595Challenger Villa Maria · R321:6 7:5 6:4