ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 64hard, indoorbest of three sets
Merida vs Báez 2:0: result and our tips
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Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Daniel Merida73%
Sebastián Báez27%
Elo: D. Merida 68% · S. Báez 32%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 D. Merida50%
2:1 D. Merida22%
2:1 S. Báez13%
2:0 S. Báez15%
First set
Daniel Merida68%
Sebastián Báez32%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 48%market (no margin): 51%
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.2
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 74% | 27% | 76% |
| 19.5 | 66% | 34% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 58% | 42% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 52% | 48% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 44% | 56% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 39% | 61% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 37% | 63% | 38% |
Sample: 4,233 matches
Games handicap
D. Merida −3.552%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes37%
tour average 39%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorehit 2:0
- Total games Under 22.0in · 18 games
- Games handicapcovered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Daniel Merida | Sebastián Báez | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aces | 2 |
| 1 | Double faults | 1 |
| 67% | First serves in | 64% |
| 72% | First-serve points won | 62% |
| 57% | Second-serve points won | 57% |
| 3/9 | Break points converted | 0/4 |
| 9/9 | Service games held | 6/9 |
| 67% | Service points won | 60% |
| 40% | Return points won | 33% |
| 66 | Total points won | 56 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| D. Merida | Tour | S. Báez | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 62% | 61% |
| Return points won | 41% | 38% | 39% |
| Service games held | 77% | 76% | 73% |
| Breaks of serve | 30% | 24% | 25% |
| Aces per service game | 0.29 | 0.18 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.24 | 0.18 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 10% | 10% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/18 | 8/14 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 75% | |
| Matches in the sample | 71 | 62 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Daniel Merida
- 28/10/26LDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Vienna · R326:7 1:6
- 08/10/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#37ATP Shanghai · R1286:1 3:6 4:6
- 04/09/26LAlex Michelsen#35ATP US Open · R326:7 4:6 3:6
- 02/09/26WAndrey Rublev#22ATP US Open · R646:7 6:2 6:4 6:4
- 30/08/26WMarton Fucsovics#144ATP US Open · R1286:4 6:4 6:2
- 18/08/26LTaylor Fritz#12ATP Cincinnati · R323:6 4:6
- 16/08/26WZizou Bergs#40ATP Cincinnati · R646:3 6:2
- 14/08/26WMarin Cilic#96ATP Cincinnati · R1283:6 6:1 6:1
- 11/08/26LLearner Tien#19ATP Montreal · QF3:6 2:6
- 09/08/26WTallon Griekspoor#50ATP Montreal · R166:3 6:1
Sebastián Báez
- 01/11/26LTomáš Macháč#69ATP Paris · Q22:6 4:6
- 31/10/26WDamir Dzumhur#88ATP Paris · Q17:6 7:5
- 24/10/26LGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard#145ATP Basel · Q13:6 6:3 3:6
- 20/10/26LPierre-Hugues Herbert#249ATP Lyon · R323:6 4:6
- 10/10/26LValentin Vacherot#27ATP Shanghai · R644:6 6:7
- 08/10/26WMarcos Giron#89ATP Shanghai · R1281:6 6:3 6:4
- 01/10/26LJuncheng Shang#250ATP Beijing · R327:5 3:6 5:7
- 23/09/26LJenson Brooksby#94ATP Chengdu · R325:7 5:7
- 31/08/26LBrandon Nakashima#18ATP US Open · R1282:6 1:6 0:6
- 26/08/26LJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#54ATP Winston Salem · R162:6 0:4
Elo over the last year
Daniel MeridaSebastián Báez
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| D. Merida | S. Báez | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 20–1165% | 15–1550% |
| Clay | 26–1170% | 17–1455% |
| Grass | 1–233% | 0–10% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Daniel Merida
First match in this tournament.
Sebastián Báez
- 31/10/26WDamir Dzumhur#88ATP Paris · Q17:6 7:5
- 01/11/26LTomáš Macháč#69ATP Paris · Q22:6 4:6