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ATP Stockholm250Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets

Michelsen vs Cerúndolo 2:0: result and our tips

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Alex MichelsenATP #35Elo 2055hard 2040
2:0final6:3 6:2
Juan Manuel CerúndoloATP #54Elo 1949hard 1881

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 23.5Won59%

Where the number comes from: market alone 62% → with the players' profiles 59%

Under 23.5 games in recent matches: Michelsen 13 of 20, Cerundolo 15 of 20 (tour average 61%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alex Michelsen78%
Juan Manuel Cerúndolo22%

Elo: A. Michelsen 71% · J. Cerúndolo 29%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Michelsen55%
2:1 A. Michelsen22%
2:1 J. Cerúndolo12%
2:0 J. Cerúndolo12%

First set

Alex Michelsen72%
Juan Manuel Cerúndolo28%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 47%market (no margin): 49%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.569%31%68%
20.561%39%59%
21.554%46%54%
22.547%53%46%
23.540%60%39%
24.537%63%38%
25.534%66%35%

Sample: 3,433 matches

Games handicap

A. Michelsen −4.545%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes42%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 22.0out · 17 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Alex MichelsenJuan Manuel Cerúndolo
3Aces3
1Double faults2
66%First serves in63%
77%First-serve points won59%
69%Second-serve points won29%
4/13Break points converted1/1
8/9Service games held4/8
75%Service points won48%
52%Return points won26%
69Total points won43

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. MichelsenTourJ. Cerúndolo
Service points won65%62%64%
Return points won38%38%37%
Service games held83%76%80%
Breaks of serve23%24%22%
Aces per service game0.470.45
Double faults per game0.230.23
Sets with a tie-break19%20%
Tie-breaks won16/3218/35
Wins in straight sets70%59%
Matches in the sample6568

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alex Michelsen

Juan Manuel Cerúndolo

Elo over the last year

Alex MichelsenJuan Manuel Cerúndolo

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. MichelsenJ. Cerúndolo
Hard court31–1666%16–1355%
Clay6–746%23–1364%
Grass3–260%2–250%

Head to head

A. Michelsen 0–1 J. Cerúndolo

  • 25/05/25Winner: J. Cerúndolo3:6 2:6 4:6

Road through the tournament

Alex Michelsen

Juan Manuel Cerúndolo

Upcoming matches

See also