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Challenger LimaChallenger 75Round of 16claybest of three sets

Midon vs Tobon 0:1: result and our tips

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Lautaro MidonATP #180Elo 1765clay 1780
0:1retired3:6 1:1
Miguel TobonATP #422Elo 1623clay 1631

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 22.558%

Where the number comes from: market alone 55% → with the players' profiles 58%

Tobon: 6 matches in a row under 22.5 games

Other tips

  • Match Winner: Midon65%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 65%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Midon won 7 of the last 10 matches

  • Total Sets: Under 2.562%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Tobon: 6 matches in a row without a deciding set

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.545%

Where the number comes from: market alone 42% → with the players' profiles 45%

Tobon: 6 matches in a row under 20.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Lautaro Midon65%
Miguel Tobon35%

Elo: L. Midon 70% · M. Tobon 30%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Midon43%
2:1 L. Midon23%
2:1 M. Tobon15%
2:0 M. Tobon19%

First set

Lautaro Midon62%
Miguel Tobon39%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%68%
19.561%39%59%
20.555%45%52%
21.548%52%46%
22.542%58%40%
23.539%61%36%
24.536%64%34%

Sample: 4,615 matches

Games handicap

L. Midon −3.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 27%

Match stats

Lautaro MidonMiguel Tobon
1Aces0
2Double faults1
55%First serves in55%
71%First-serve points won74%
57%Second-serve points won58%
0/1Break points converted1/2
4/5Service games held6/6
65%Service points won67%
33%Return points won36%
34Total points won39

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. MidonTourM. Tobon
Service points won59%62%62%
Return points won43%38%39%
Service games held69%76%76%
Breaks of serve33%24%27%
Aces per service game0.300.40
Double faults per game0.200.33
Sets with a tie-break11%20%
Tie-breaks won12/1913/26
Wins in straight sets55%55%
Matches in the sample7055

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Lautaro Midon

Miguel Tobon

Elo over the last year

Lautaro MidonMiguel Tobon

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. MidonM. Tobon
Hard court6–367%9–950%
Clay38–2263%20–1754%
Grass0–10%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Lautaro Midon

Miguel Tobon

Upcoming matches

See also