Challenger BragaChallenger 75Finalclaybest of three sets

Moller vs Dodig 1:2: result and our tips

·

Elmer MollerATP #181Elo 1753clay 1773
1:2final6:3 3:6 2:6
Matej DodigATP #174Elo 1867clay 1867

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: DodigWon69%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 69%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Dodig won 9 of the last 10 matches; Dodig: 4 wins in a row

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: DodigLost64%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Dodig: 4 matches in a row winning the first set; Moller lost the first set in 10 of the last 20 matches, Dodig won the first set in 14 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

  • Total Games: Over 18.5Won69%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 73% → with the players' profiles 69%

    Moller: 7 matches in a row over 18.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Won31%

Where the number comes from: market alone 33% → with the players' profiles 31%

Moller: 4 matches in a row over 25.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Elmer Moller31%
Matej Dodig69%

Elo: E. Moller 37% · M. Dodig 63%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 E. Moller17%
2:1 E. Moller14%
2:1 M. Dodig23%
2:0 M. Dodig46%

First set

Elmer Moller36%
Matej Dodig64%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%68%
19.561%39%59%
20.554%46%52%
21.548%52%47%
22.542%58%40%
23.538%62%36%
24.535%65%34%

Sample: 3,994 matches

Games handicap

Matej Dodig −3.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes26%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 26 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Elmer MollerMatej Dodig
0Aces4
5Double faults1
69%First serves in62%
64%First-serve points won75%
43%Second-serve points won52%
2/6Break points converted4/12
9/13Service games held11/13
57%Service points won66%
34%Return points won43%
81Total points won91

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

E. MollerTourM. Dodig
Service points won57%62%65%
Return points won43%38%37%
Service games held66%76%82%
Breaks of serve33%24%22%
Aces per service game0.200.55
Double faults per game0.460.18
Sets with a tie-break12%17%
Tie-breaks won10/1416/28
Wins in straight sets68%55%
Matches in the sample5168

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Elmer Moller

Matej Dodig

Elo over the last year

Elmer MollerMatej Dodig

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

E. MollerM. Dodig
Hard court2–625%14–1254%
Clay26–1760%29–1173%
Grass0–01–150%

Head to head

E. Moller 0–1 M. Dodig

  • 12/04/24Winner: Matej Dodig2:6 0:6

Road through the tournament

Elmer Moller

Matej Dodig

See also