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ATP Stockholm250Qualifying round 2hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Montes-de la Torre vs Sonego 0:2: result and our tips

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Inaki Montes-de la TorreATP #191Elo 1737hard 1730
0:2final5:7 3:6
Lorenzo SonegoATP #106Elo 1851hard 1831

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Tie-break in Match: NoWon60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Montes-de la Torre: 5 matches in a row without a tie-break

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Inaki Montes-de la Torre25%
Lorenzo Sonego75%

Elo: I. Montes-de la Torre 36% · L. Sonego 64%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 I. Montes-de la Torre14%
2:1 I. Montes-de la Torre13%
2:1 L. Sonego22%
2:0 L. Sonego51%

First set

Inaki Montes-de la Torre31%
Lorenzo Sonego69%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 46%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.568%32%68%
20.560%40%60%
21.554%46%54%
22.546%54%46%
23.540%60%40%
24.538%62%38%
25.535%65%35%

Sample: 4,015 matches

Games handicap

L. Sonego −3.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes40%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 22.0out · 21 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Inaki Montes-de la TorreLorenzo Sonego
2Aces7
1Double faults2
68%First serves in76%
63%First-serve points won67%
47%Second-serve points won46%
1/5Break points converted3/4
7/10Service games held10/11
58%Service points won62%
39%Return points won42%
69Total points won81

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

I. Montes-de la TorreTourL. Sonego
Service points won60%62%66%
Return points won44%38%34%
Service games held74%76%82%
Breaks of serve35%24%16%
Aces per service game0.200.58
Double faults per game0.430.16
Sets with a tie-break10%22%
Tie-breaks won10/1113/24
Wins in straight sets67%47%
Matches in the sample5041

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Inaki Montes-de la Torre

Lorenzo Sonego

Elo over the last year

Inaki Montes-de la TorreLorenzo Sonego

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

I. Montes-de la TorreL. Sonego
Hard court17–868%10–1245%
Clay16–964%3–827%
Grass0–04–450%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Inaki Montes-de la Torre

Lorenzo Sonego

Upcoming matches