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ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 64hard, indoorbest of three sets

Bellucci vs Sonego 2:0: result and our tips

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Mattia BellucciATP #66Elo 1957hard 1931
2:0final6:4 6:3
Lorenzo SonegoATP #106Elo 1852hard 1836

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mattia Bellucci59%
Lorenzo Sonego42%

Elo: M. Bellucci 63% · L. Sonego 37%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Bellucci36%
2:1 M. Bellucci21%
2:1 L. Sonego19%
2:0 L. Sonego24%

First set

Mattia Bellucci56%
Lorenzo Sonego44%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 23.5 · 50%market (no margin): 50%

The 23.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.571%29%60%
21.564%36%54%
22.558%42%46%
23.550%50%40%
24.544%56%38%
25.543%58%35%
26.538%62%30%

Sample: 6,017 matches

Games handicap

M. Bellucci −1.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes51%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 23.5out · 19 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Mattia BellucciLorenzo Sonego
3Aces6
—Double faults—
64%First serves in76%
77%First-serve points won61%
65%Second-serve points won36%
4/8Break points converted1/5
8/9Service games held6/10
72%Service points won55%
45%Return points won28%
60Total points won45

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. BellucciTourL. Sonego
Service points won66%62%66%
Return points won37%38%34%
Service games held83%76%82%
Breaks of serve22%24%16%
Aces per service game0.580.58
Double faults per game0.240.15
Sets with a tie-break18%21%
Tie-breaks won15/3013/24
Wins in straight sets74%42%
Matches in the sample7143

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mattia Bellucci

Lorenzo Sonego

Elo over the last year

Mattia BellucciLorenzo Sonego

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. BellucciL. Sonego
Hard court30–1863%12–1250%
Clay7–750%3–827%
Grass5–456%4–450%

Head to head

M. Bellucci 1–0 L. Sonego

  • 29/04/26Winner: M. Bellucci6:4 1:6 7:5

Road through the tournament

Mattia Bellucci

Lorenzo Sonego

See also