Challenger Brisbane 3Challenger 75Quarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying
Tomic vs Holmgren: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 10h 49mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Bernard Tomic42%
August Holmgren58%
Elo: B. Tomic 62% · A. Holmgren 38%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 B. Tomic25%
2:1 B. Tomic17%
2:1 A. Holmgren21%
2:0 A. Holmgren38%
First set
Bernard Tomic44%
August Holmgren56%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 48%market (no margin): 49%
The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.1
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 73% | 27% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 65% | 35% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 58% | 42% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 52% | 48% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 45% | 55% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 41% | 59% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 39% | 62% | 32% |
Sample: 6,139 matches
Games handicap
A. Holmgren −2.548%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes44%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| B. Tomic | Tour | A. Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 64% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 37% | 38% | 35% |
| Service games held | 79% | 76% | 83% |
| Breaks of serve | 24% | 24% | 19% |
| Aces per service game | 0.47 | 0.64 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.13 | 0.31 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 18% | 19% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 13/28 | 18/29 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 66% | |
| Matches in the sample | 65 | 63 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Bernard Tomic
- 11/11/26WOmar Jasika#301Challenger Brisbane 3 · R167:6 7:6
- 09/11/26WBlake Ellis#393Challenger Brisbane 3 · R326:3 4:6 7:5
- 13/10/26LDane Sweeny#116Challenger Jinan · R322:2
- 08/10/26LMatteo Arnaldi#38ATP Shanghai · R1283:6 1:6
- 06/10/26WTimofey Skatov#197ATP Shanghai · Q27:5 6:4
- 05/10/26WTerence Atmane#75ATP Shanghai · Q16:3 4:6 5:3
- 01/10/26WYuta Shimizu#362Challenger Jingshan · R165:7 6:2 7:6
- 29/09/26WFajing Sun#297Challenger Jingshan · R326:4 6:7 6:3
- 23/09/26LFajing Sun#297ATP Hangzhou · Q24:6 5:7
- 22/09/26WRigele TE#741ATP Hangzhou · Q16:7 6:4 7:5
August Holmgren
- 11/11/26WChristopher O'Connell#117Challenger Brisbane 3 · R166:2 6:2
- 10/11/26WPhilip Sekulic#332Challenger Brisbane 3 · R326:4 4:6 7:5
- 04/11/26LYuta Shimizu#362Challenger Taipei · R166:7 4:6
- 02/11/26WDaniel Michalski#315Challenger Taipei · R326:3 6:4
- 27/10/26LJay Friend#256Challenger Seoul · R323:6 3:6
- 13/10/26LLuca Nardi#263Challenger Olbia · R326:4 4:6 4:6
- 06/10/26LPedro Martinez#124Challenger Villena · R326:2 6:7 5:7
- 02/10/26LHenrique Rocha#111Challenger Porto 2 · QF3:6 6:7
- 01/10/26WAndrea Guerrieri#160Challenger Porto 2 · R167:5 6:1
- 28/09/26WBenjamin Bonzi#91Challenger Porto 2 · R326:3 6:4
Elo over the last year
Bernard TomicAugust Holmgren
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| B. Tomic | A. Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 31–2258% | 21–2348% |
| Clay | 2–340% | 6–367% |
| Grass | 3–443% | 5–645% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Bernard Tomic
- 09/11/26WBlake Ellis#393Challenger Brisbane 3 · R326:3 4:6 7:5
- 11/11/26WOmar Jasika#301Challenger Brisbane 3 · R167:6 7:6
August Holmgren
- 10/11/26WPhilip Sekulic#332Challenger Brisbane 3 · R326:4 4:6 7:5
- 11/11/26WChristopher O'Connell#117Challenger Brisbane 3 · R166:2 6:2
Upcoming matches
- Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva vs Gonzalo Bueno, · Challenger Lima
- Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Juan Pablo Varillas, · Challenger Lima
- Sebastian Gorzny vs Alex Bolt, · Challenger Brisbane 3
- Yu Hsiou Hsu vs Jay Friend, · Challenger Matsuyama
- Dane Sweeny vs Juncheng Shang, · Challenger Brisbane 3
- Akira Santillan vs Christian Langmo, · Challenger Brisbane 3