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Challenger Costa do SauipeChallenger 175Round of 32claybest of three sets

Tosetto vs Roncadelli 1:2: result and our tips

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Rafael TosettoATP #817Elo 1439clay 1449
1:2final5:7 7:5 1:6
Franco RoncadelliATP #261Elo 1622clay 1635

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Rafael Tosetto12%
Franco Roncadelli88%

Elo: R. Tosetto 26% · F. Roncadelli 74%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 R. Tosetto6%
2:1 R. Tosetto6%
2:1 F. Roncadelli19%
2:0 F. Roncadelli68%

First set

Rafael Tosetto19%
Franco Roncadelli81%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes26%
no74%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 19.0 · 54%market (no margin): 51%

The 19.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 19.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
15.574%26%91%
16.564%36%84%
17.554%46%76%
18.546%54%68%
19.539%61%59%
20.534%66%52%
21.529%71%47%

Sample: 1,580 matches

Games handicap

F. Roncadelli −5.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes13%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 19.0out · 31 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Rafael TosettoFranco Roncadelli
2Aces2
2Double faults3
58%First serves in76%
72%First-serve points won74%
39%Second-serve points won54%
2/9Break points converted4/15
11/15Service games held14/16
58%Service points won69%
31%Return points won42%
90Total points won112

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

R. TosettoTourF. Roncadelli
Service points won60%62%57%
Return points won40%38%44%
Service games held73%76%65%
Breaks of serve27%24%38%
Aces per service game0.300.08
Double faults per game0.320.12
Sets with a tie-break5%10%
Tie-breaks won1/27/14
Wins in straight sets63%53%
Matches in the sample1659

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Rafael Tosetto

Franco Roncadelli

Elo over the last year

Rafael TosettoFranco Roncadelli

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

R. TosettoF. Roncadelli
Hard court0–00–10%
Clay8–850%32–2556%
Grass0–00–10%

Head to head

R. Tosetto 0–2 F. Roncadelli

  • 06/05/24Winner: F. Roncadelli6:1 2:6 0:6
  • 22/10/23Winner: F. Roncadelli6:4 6:7 0:6

Road through the tournament

Rafael Tosetto

Franco Roncadelli

First match in this tournament.