ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 64hard, indoorbest of three sets
Vallejo vs Tien 1:2: result and our tips
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1:2final3:6 7:5 5:7
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo20%
Learner Tien80%
Elo: A. Vallejo 25% · L. Tien 75%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 A. Vallejo11%
2:1 A. Vallejo11%
2:1 L. Tien21%
2:0 L. Tien58%
First set
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo27%
Learner Tien73%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes32%
no68%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 49%
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 72% | 28% | 76% |
| 19.5 | 63% | 37% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 54% | 46% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 48% | 52% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 41% | 59% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 36% | 65% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 34% | 66% | 38% |
Sample: 3,042 matches
Games handicap
L. Tien −4.547%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes35%
tour average 38%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorewas 1:2
- Total games Under 21.5out · 33 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | Learner Tien | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aces | 10 |
| 2 | Double faults | 3 |
| 66% | First serves in | 69% |
| 64% | First-serve points won | 69% |
| 54% | Second-serve points won | 47% |
| 4/11 | Break points converted | 5/12 |
| 11/16 | Service games held | 13/17 |
| 61% | Service points won | 62% |
| 38% | Return points won | 39% |
| 101 | Total points won | 104 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Vallejo | Tour | L. Tien | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 41% | 38% | 39% |
| Service games held | 77% | 76% | 80% |
| Breaks of serve | 32% | 24% | 25% |
| Aces per service game | 0.31 | 0.44 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.25 | 0.28 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 11% | 17% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 9/21 | 21/29 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 50% | |
| Matches in the sample | 80 | 60 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
- 01/11/26LLorenzo Sonego#106ATP Paris · Q23:6 6:4 6:7
- 31/10/26WGrigor Dimitrov#134ATP Paris · Q17:6 4:6 6:3
- 24/10/26LLorenzo Sonego#106ATP Vienna · Q12:6 6:3 3:6
- 10/10/26LTommy Paul#14ATP Shanghai · R642:6 2:6
- 08/10/26WValentin Royer#120ATP Shanghai · R1286:3 6:1
- 04/10/26LJiří Lehečka#15ATP Tokyo · QF1:6 1:6
- 03/10/26WMatteo Berrettini#43ATP Tokyo · R167:6 6:1
- 01/10/26WRafael Jodar#10ATP Tokyo · R326:1 6:3
- 29/09/26WJaime Faria#57ATP Tokyo · Q26:4 5:7 7:5
- 28/09/26WTaro Daniel#178ATP Tokyo · Q16:3 6:2
Learner Tien
- 28/10/26LAlex de Minaur#9ATP Vienna · R164:6 2:6
- 26/10/26WLuca Van Assche#47ATP Vienna · R326:3 6:1
- 12/10/26LCasper Ruud#23ATP Shanghai · R324:6 6:7
- 10/10/26WZachary Svajda#75ATP Shanghai · R647:5 7:5
- 01/10/26LHubert Hurkacz#29ATP Beijing · R327:5 3:6 4:6
- 07/09/26LKaren Khachanov#25ATP US Open · R165:7 6:4 7:6 1:6 4:6
- 06/09/26WJakub Menšík#16ATP US Open · R326:3 1:6 6:7 6:3 6:4
- 03/09/26WGael MonfilsATP US Open · R646:3 6:4 6:3
- 31/08/26WNuno Borges#49ATP US Open · R1286:4 6:1 6:2
- 19/08/26LFrances Tiafoe#8ATP Cincinnati · R324:6 6:4 4:6
Elo over the last year
Adolfo Daniel VallejoLearner Tien
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Vallejo | L. Tien | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 12–1055% | 29–1467% |
| Clay | 41–1573% | 9–469% |
| Grass | 0–20% | 2–250% |
Head to head
A. Vallejo 1–0 L. Tien
- 25/04/26Winner: A. Vallejo6:4 6:3
Road through the tournament
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
- 31/10/26WGrigor Dimitrov#134ATP Paris · Q17:6 4:6 6:3
- 01/11/26LLorenzo Sonego#106ATP Paris · Q23:6 6:4 6:7
Learner Tien
First match in this tournament.