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ATP ParisMasters 1000Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Vallejo vs Dimitrov 2:1: result and our tips

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Adolfo Daniel VallejoATP #56Elo 1911hard 1840
2:1final7:6(3) 4:6 6:3
Grigor DimitrovATP #134Elo 1969hard 1969

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

How our tips did

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo48%
Grigor Dimitrov52%

Elo: A. Vallejo 32% · G. Dimitrov 68%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Vallejo29%
2:1 A. Vallejo20%
2:1 G. Dimitrov20%
2:0 G. Dimitrov32%

First set

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo49%
Grigor Dimitrov52%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 49%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.575%25%68%
20.567%33%60%
21.561%39%54%
22.553%47%46%
23.546%54%40%
24.544%56%38%
25.540%60%35%

Sample: 5,328 matches

Games handicap

G. Dimitrov −0.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes44%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 32 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Adolfo Daniel VallejoGrigor Dimitrov
5Aces7
3Double faults7
60%First serves in54%
75%First-serve points won80%
52%Second-serve points won50%
3/4Break points converted2/9
13/15Service games held13/16
66%Service points won66%
34%Return points won34%
100Total points won96

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. VallejoTourG. Dimitrov
Service points won62%62%65%
Return points won42%38%35%
Service games held77%76%80%
Breaks of serve33%24%18%
Aces per service game0.310.60
Double faults per game0.250.34
Sets with a tie-break10%17%
Tie-breaks won8/195/14
Wins in straight sets62%67%
Matches in the sample7831

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Grigor Dimitrov

Elo over the last year

Adolfo Daniel VallejoGrigor Dimitrov

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. VallejoG. Dimitrov
Hard court11–955%4–1029%
Clay41–1573%1–614%
Grass0–20%7–370%

Head to head

A. Vallejo 1–0 G. Dimitrov

  • 23/04/26Winner: A. Vallejo6:4 6:4

Upcoming matches

See also