Primera LPFMatchday 12

Instituto 2-2 Boca Juniors: prediction, tips and result

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Instituto
1-02-32-13-14-1
2-2Full time(half time 1-1)
Boca Juniors
3-02-03-12-21-0
Stadium:
Estadio Presidente Peron, Cordoba
Referee:
Leandro Rey Hilfer

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Lost61%

referee Leandro Rey Hilfer averages 4.7 card points a match, league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Fouls – Boca Juniors: Under 11.5Won62%

    Boca Juniors: 10.3 fouls a match, Instituto's opponents committed 9.9 on average, league average 11.8; our numbers for Boca Juniors: 10.7 fouls against a league average of 11.8

  • Offsides – Instituto: Under 1.5Won56%

    Instituto: under 1.5 offsides in 7 of their last 10 league matches, Boca Juniors's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 8 of 10 (49% of league matches)

  • Shots on Target – Instituto: Under 4.5Lost58%

    Boca Juniors's opponents had 2.8 shots on target on average, league average 4.4

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5Lost45%

referee Leandro Rey Hilfer averages 4.7 card points a match, league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloInstituto163929%29%Draw32%31%Boca Juniors175739%41%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS42%47%O2.534%40%|exp. goals 1.1 : 1.2both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Boca Juniors2:0InstitutoL
  2. Instituto0:0Boca JuniorsD
  3. Boca Juniors2:3InstitutoW
  4. Instituto1:1Boca JuniorsD
  5. Boca Juniors3:0InstitutoL
Instituto's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.8league 8.7over 8.5: 52%Expected corners: 8.8 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.lost · ended 6
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.8league 4.8over 4.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 4.8 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.won · ended 7
RefereeL. Rey Hilfer−0.3 yellow cards vs average24 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)76%O1.50:1coverageleague 72% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market0.9 : 1.1total 2.0Attack/defence1.1 : 1.2total 2.3
Instituto : Boca Juniors
Most likely scores
Market1-114%0-014%0-113%1-011%0-28%1-2—2-1—Attack/defence1-114%0-011%0-112%1-011%0-2—1-28%2-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-114%0-00-014%0-011%0-10-113%0-112%1-01-011%1-011%0-20-28%0-2—1-21-2—1-28%2-12-1—2-17%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals85%80%80%
X2 – away team avoid defeat71%67%67%
12 – no draw68%71%71%
Under 2.5 goals66%60%60%
Over 1.5 goals62%66%66%
1X – home team avoid defeat61%62%62%
Both teams to score: no58%53%53%
Both teams to score: yes42%47%47%
2 – Boca Juniors win39%38% · Elo 41%38%· Elo 41%
Under 1.5 goals38%34%34%
Over 2.5 goals34%40%40%
X – draw32%29% · Elo 31%29%· Elo 31%
1 – Instituto win29%33% · Elo 29%33%· Elo 29%
Over 3.5 goals15%20%20%
Attack vs defence
Instituto attack vs Boca Juniors defenceattack1530defence1634−104 pts to the attack
Boca Juniors attack vs Instituto defenceattack1622defence1517+105 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 7.4 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.560%62%
7.546%51%
8.533%39%
9.522%30%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Institutowe expect 4.3, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 42%
Boca Juniorswe expect 2.9, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 34%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 22.2 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
21.553%55%
22.546%50%
23.539%45%
24.532%37%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Institutowe expect 10.0, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 41%
Boca Juniorswe expect 10.7, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 38%
Referee: 25.5 fouls per match on average (24 matches in our data)+2.3 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 65%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 35%
We expect 3.0 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.557%65%
3.535%41%
4.519%26%
5.59%15%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Institutowe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Boca Juniorswe expect 1.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 41%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Boca Juniors: unbeaten in 10 matches
  • Instituto: 25 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 16 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Instituto: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
  • Boca Juniors: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

Instituto

Boca Juniors

League position

Clausura, Group A

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Instituto1282219:1026
3Boca Juniors1256119:1321
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Instituto vs Boca Juniors?

Instituto 2-2 Boca Juniors (half time 1-1).

Did the Instituto vs Boca Juniors tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5. The tip lost.

See also