Primera LPFMatchday 11

Independiente 1-4 Instituto: prediction, tips and result

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Independiente
0-00-31-01-12-1
1-4Full time(half time 1-1)
Instituto
3-12-12-31-00-0
Stadium:
Libertadores de America, Buenos Aires
Referee:
Hernan Mastrangelo

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Corners: Over 8.5Won56%

11.6 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 9.2 in the visitors', league average 8.7; over 8.5 corners in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 10 (51% of league matches)

Other tips

  • Shots on Target – Independiente: Under 4.5Won67%

    Independiente: under 4.5 shots on target in 6 of their last 10 league matches, Instituto's opponents had under 4.5 in 10 of 10 (54% of league matches); 4.3 shots on target a match, Instituto's opponents had 2.3 on average, league average 4.4

  • Fouls – Independiente: Under 10.5Lost64%

    our numbers for Independiente: 9.5 fouls against a league average of 10.9; Independiente: 9.9 fouls a match, Instituto's opponents committed 9.4 on average, league average 10.9

For the brave
Corners: Over 10.5Lost32%

11.6 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 9.2 in the visitors', league average 8.7; over 10.5 corners in 6 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 4 of the visitors' last 10 (28% of league matches)

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloIndependiente164737%47%Draw32%29%Instituto163931%24%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS42%46%O2.533%40%|exp. goals 1.4 : 0.9both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Instituto2:1IndependienteL
  2. Instituto0:0IndependienteD
  3. Independiente2:0InstitutoW
  4. Instituto3:1IndependienteL
  5. Independiente2:2InstitutoD
Independiente's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.2league 8.7over 8.5: 56%Expected corners: 9.2 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.won · ended 10
Cardsleague cards4.9league 5.0under 5.5: 63%Expected cards: 4.9 in this match, 5.0 on average in the league.In this league 61% of matches end under 5.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.lost · ended 7
RefereeH. Mastrangelo−0.2 cards vs average16 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)77%O1.51:0coverageleague 76% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.1 : 1.0total 2.1Attack/defence1.4 : 0.9total 2.3
Independiente : Instituto
Most likely scores
Market1-114%0-014%1-013%0-111%2-08%2-1—Attack/defence1-113%0-010%1-013%0-19%2-09%2-19%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%0-00-014%0-010%1-01-013%1-013%0-10-111%0-19%2-02-08%2-09%2-12-1—2-19%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals85%80%80%
1X – home team avoid defeat69%75%75%
12 – no draw68%72%72%
Under 2.5 goals67%60%60%
X2 – away team avoid defeat63%54%54%
Over 1.5 goals61%67%67%
Both teams to score: no58%54%54%
Both teams to score: yes42%46%46%
Under 1.5 goals39%33%33%
1 – Independiente win37%46% · Elo 47%46%· Elo 47%
Over 2.5 goals33%40%40%
X – draw32%28% · Elo 29%28%· Elo 29%
2 – Instituto win31%25% · Elo 24%25%· Elo 24%
Over 3.5 goals15%20%20%
Attack vs defence
Independiente attack vs Instituto defenceattack1537defence1511+26 pts to the attack
Instituto attack vs Independiente defenceattack1514defence1536−22 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 7.4 in this match, 7.8 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.560%61%
7.546%50%
8.533%39%
9.522%30%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Independientewe expect 3.8, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 33%
Institutowe expect 3.3, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 42%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 22.5 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
21.555%55%
22.548%51%
23.541%46%
24.534%38%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Independientewe expect 9.5, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 36%
Institutowe expect 12.2, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 54%
Referee: 24.6 fouls per match on average (11 matches in our data)+1.7 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.563%65%
3.541%41%
4.523%27%
5.512%15%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Independientewe expect 1.7, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 50%
Institutowe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 44%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Independiente matches average 11.6 corners (league 8.7) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
  • Instituto: 22 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 16 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Independiente: 13 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
  • Instituto: 13 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

Independiente

Instituto

League position

Clausura, Group A

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Instituto1282219:1026
7Independiente1253411:1218
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Independiente vs Instituto?

Independiente 1-4 Instituto (half time 1-1).

Did the Independiente vs Instituto tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Corners: Over 8.5. The tip won.

See also