Primera LPFMatchday 11
Boca Juniors 3-0 Union de Santa Fe: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Alberto Jose Armando, Buenos Aires
- Referee:
- Sebastian Nicolas Martinez
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Total Goals: Under 2.5Lost55%
under 2.5 goals in 5 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings
Other tips
- Fouls: Under 22.5Won66%
our numbers: 20.5 fouls against a league average of 22.7; 19.3 fouls a match in the hosts' matches, 21.3 in the visitors', league average 22.7
- Offsides: Under 3.5Won65%
under 3.5 offsides in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (59% of league matches); 2.5 offsides a match in the hosts' matches, 3.1 in the visitors', league average 3.4
For the brave
Correct Score: 1:0Lost14%
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS46%50%O2.552%50%|exp. goals 1.8 : 0.9not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Union de Santa Fe1:1Boca JuniorsD
- Boca Juniors1:1Union de Santa FeD
- Union de Santa Fe1:1Boca JuniorsD
- Boca Juniors1:0Union de Santa FeW
- Union de Santa Fe0:0Boca JuniorsD
Boca Juniors's record: 1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses1.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.9league 8.7over 8.5: 53%Expected corners: 8.9 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.lost · ended 3
Cardsleague cards5.3league 5.0under 5.5: 56%Expected cards: 5.3 in this match, 5.0 on average in the league.In this league 61% of matches end under 5.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.lost · ended 7
RefereeS. Nicolas Martinez+0.9 cards vs average20 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)73%11:1coverageleague 56% · H2H 4/5covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.0 : 0.7total 2.7Attack/defence1.8 : 0.9total 2.7
Boca Juniors : Union de Santa FeMost likely scores
Market2-013%1-012%1-110%2-110%3-09%0-0—Attack/defence2-011%1-012%1-112%2-110%3-06%0-07%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-013%2-011%1-01-012%1-012%1-11-110%1-112%2-12-110%2-110%3-03-09%3-06%0-00-0—0-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 87%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 80%76% | 76% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70%72% | 72% |
| 1 – Boca Juniors win | 67%57% · Elo 59% | 57%· Elo 59% |
| Both teams to score: no | 54%50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52%50% | 50% |
| Our tip: Under 2.5 goals | 48%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46%50% | 50% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 33%43% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%28% | 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%26% | 26% |
| X – draw | 20%24% · Elo 25% | 24%· Elo 25% |
| 2 – Union de Santa Fe win | 13%19% · Elo 16% | 19%· Elo 16% |
Attack vs defence
Boca Juniors attack vs Union de Santa Fe defenceattack1615defence1453+162 pts to the attack
Union de Santa Fe attack vs Boca Juniors defenceattack1589defence1625−36 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 8.0 in this match, 7.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.567%61%
7.553%50%
8.540%39%
9.528%30%
Each team on its own
Boca Juniorswe expect 5.0, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 54%
Union de Santa Fewe expect 3.2, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 39%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 66%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 34%
We expect 20.5 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.540%55%
22.534%51%
23.527%46%
24.522%38%
Each team on its own
Boca Juniorswe expect 9.6, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 37%
Union de Santa Fewe expect 11.1, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 43%
Referee: 22.5 fouls per match on average (23 matches in our data)−0.7 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 65%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 35%
We expect 3.0 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.557%65%
3.535%41%
4.519%27%
5.59%15%
Each team on its own
Boca Juniorswe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Union de Santa Fewe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Union de Santa Fe: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Boca Juniors: unbeaten in 9 matches
- Boca Juniors: 12 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Union de Santa Fe: 13 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Clausura, Group A
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 19:13 | 21 |
| 11 | Union de Santa Fe | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17:21 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Boca Juniors vs Union de Santa Fe?
Boca Juniors 3-0 Union de Santa Fe (half time 1-0).
Did the Boca Juniors vs Union de Santa Fe tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Under 2.5. The tip lost.