Pro LeagueMatchday 8

Mechelen 4-3 St Truiden: prediction, tips and result

·

Mechelen
0-22-20-40-10-0
4-3Full time(half time 3-1)
St Truiden
0-20-24-00-34-1
Stadium:
AFAS Stadion, Mechelen
Referee:
Bert Verbeke

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5Lost58%

referee Bert Verbeke averages 3.2 card points a match, league average 4.1; our numbers: 3.3 card points against a league average of 4.1; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Corners: Under 10.5Won63%

    8.7 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 9.0 in the visitors', league average 10.1

  • Fouls: Under 19.5Won56%

    our numbers: 19.0 fouls against a league average of 20.9

  • Offsides: Under 3.5Lost64%

    under 3.5 offsides in 6 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 7 (57% of league matches); 2.7 offsides a match in the hosts' matches, 2.6 in the visitors', league average 3.5

  • Shots on Target – Mechelen: Under 4.5Won60%

    our numbers for Mechelen: 4.2 shots on target against a league average of 4.8

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5Lost38%

referee Bert Verbeke averages 3.2 card points a match, league average 4.1; our numbers: 3.3 card points against a league average of 4.1; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloMechelen160933%32%Draw27%28%St Truiden168540%40%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%58%O2.557%54%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.5both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. St Truiden3:0MechelenL
  2. Mechelen1:4St TruidenL
  3. St Truiden1:0MechelenL
  4. Mechelen1:3St TruidenL
  5. Mechelen1:1St TruidenD
Mechelen's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.6league 10.2under 10.5: 63%Expected corners: 9.6 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 10
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.1league 3.7under 3.5: 62%Expected yellow cards: 3.1 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.lost · ended 6
RefereeB. Verbeke−1.0 yellow cards vs average31 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)72%U3.52:2coverageleague 76% · H2H 3/5not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.6total 3.0Attack/defence1.3 : 1.5total 2.8
Mechelen : St Truiden
Most likely scores
Market1-112%1-29%0-17%2-18%1-06%0-2—Attack/defence1-112%1-29%0-18%2-18%1-07%0-27%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-21-29%1-29%0-10-17%0-18%2-12-18%2-18%1-01-06%1-07%0-20-2—0-27%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals80%78%78%
12 – no draw73%74%74%
X2 – away team avoid defeat67%67%67%
Under 3.5 goals65%68%68%
Both teams to score: yes61%58%58%
1X – home team avoid defeat60%59%59%
Over 2.5 goals57%54%54%
Under 2.5 goals43%46%46%
2 – St Truiden win40%41% · Elo 40%41%· Elo 40%
Both teams to score: no39%42%42%
Over 3.5 goals35%32%32%
1 – Mechelen win33%33% · Elo 32%33%· Elo 32%
X – draw27%26% · Elo 28%26%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals20%22%22%
Attack vs defence
Mechelen attack vs St Truiden defenceattack1435defence1516−81 pts to the attack
St Truiden attack vs Mechelen defenceattack1547defence1449+98 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.557%61%
8.544%50%
9.532%39%
10.522%28%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Mechelenwe expect 4.2, league average 4.8 · chance of over 4.5: 40%
St Truidenwe expect 3.7, league average 4.0 · chance of over 3.5: 51%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 19.0 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
19.544%63%
20.536%55%
21.529%47%
22.524%39%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Mechelenwe expect 8.6, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 27%
St Truidenwe expect 10.5, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 48%
Referee: 20.2 fouls per match on average (31 matches in our data)−0.6 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.559%62%
3.537%43%
4.520%28%
5.59%17%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Mechelenwe expect 1.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
St Truidenwe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 39%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Mechelen concede 2.1 goals per game
  • Mechelen matches average only 7.7 corners (league 10.2) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
  • Mechelen: no win in 11 matches
  • Mechelen: only 5 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 11 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Mechelen: 22 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • St Truiden: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Mechelen

St Truiden

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12St Truiden822415:168
14Mechelen81349:176
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Mechelen vs St Truiden?

Mechelen 4-3 St Truiden (half time 3-1).

Did the Mechelen vs St Truiden tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5. The tip lost.

See also