Pro LeagueMatchday 8

Waasland-Beveren 1-3 Lommel SK: prediction, tips and result

Friday 9 October · 19:45

Waasland-Beveren

0-4 0-4 3-0 2-0 0-1

1-3Full time(half time 1-1)

Lommel SK

0-0 0-5 0-1 1-0 4-0

Stadium:: Freethielstadion, Beveren

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: 9 October 2026, 11:40. A published tip never changes.

Main tip

Cards – Lommel SK (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5Won69%

Lommel SK: 1.0 card points a match, Waasland-Beveren's opponents collected 1.3 card points on average, league average 2.2; under 2.5 card points in 6 of their last 7 league matches, Waasland-Beveren's opponents collected under 2.5 card points in 6 of 7 (63% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

Total Goals: Over 2.5Won62%
over 2.5 goals in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings
Fouls – Lommel SK: Under 10.5Won58%
our numbers for Lommel SK: 10.0 fouls against a league average of 10.9; Lommel SK: under 10.5 fouls in 5 of their last 7 league matches, Waasland-Beveren's opponents committed under 10.5 in 4 of 7 (44% of league matches)
Shots on Target: Under 8.5Lost56%
7.9 shots on target a match in the hosts' matches, 6.7 in the visitors', league average 8.8

For the brave

Cards – Lommel SK (yellow=1, red=2): Under 1.5Won43%

Lommel SK: under 1.5 card points in 5 of their last 7 league matches, Waasland-Beveren's opponents collected under 1.5 card points in 4 of 7 (35% of league matches); 1.0 card points a match, Waasland-Beveren's opponents collected 1.3 card points on average, league average 2.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloWaasland-Beveren157249%54%Draw24%25%Lommel SK149626%21%favourite did not win

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%55%O2.561%50%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.3both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

08/02/202608/02/26Waasland-Beveren2:0Lommel SKW
07/11/202507/11/25Lommel SK2:2Waasland-BeverenD
22/02/202522/02/25Lommel SK1:2Waasland-BeverenW
17/08/202417/08/24Waasland-Beveren2:1Lommel SKW
19/04/202419/04/24Lommel SK3:1Waasland-BeverenL

Waasland-Beveren's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss3.2 goals per match

Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.1under 10.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.1 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 18

Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.7under 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.won · ended 3

Refereeawaiting appointment

Dutching(several bets at once)73%O2.51:1coverageleague 64% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.8 : 1.3total 3.1Attack/defence1.4 : 1.3total 2.7

Waasland-Beveren : Lommel SK

Most likely scores

Market1-111%2-110%1-07%0-1—1-27%0-0—2-07%Attack/defence1-113%2-19%1-09%0-18%1-28%0-07%2-0—

MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-113%2-12-110%2-19%1-01-07%1-09%0-10-1—0-18%1-21-27%1-28%0-00-0—0-07%2-02-07%2-0—

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	83%75%	75%
12 – no draw	75%73%	73%
1X – home team avoid defeat	73%67%	67%
Both teams to score: yes	62%55%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	61%50%	50%
Under 3.5 goals	61%72%	72%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	50%60%	60%
1 – Waasland-Beveren win	49%40% · Elo 54%	40%· Elo 54%
Under 2.5 goals	39%50%	50%
Over 3.5 goals	39%28%	28%
Both teams to score: no	38%45%	45%
2 – Lommel SK win	26%33% · Elo 21%	33%· Elo 21%
X – draw	24%27% · Elo 25%	27%· Elo 25%
Under 1.5 goals	17%25%	25%

Attack vs defence

Waasland-Beveren attack vs Lommel SK defenceattack1405defence1451−46 pts to the attack

Lommel SK attack vs Waasland-Beveren defenceattack1419defence1417+2 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 8.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%

We expect 8.3 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

7.557%61%

8.544%50%

9.532%39%

10.522%28%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Waasland-Beverenwe expect 4.5, league average 4.8 · chance of over 4.5: 46%

Lommel SKwe expect 3.5, league average 4.0 · chance of over 3.5: 46%

Foulsleague average

Under 21.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%

We expect 19.3 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

20.539%56%

21.532%48%

22.526%39%

23.520%32%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Waasland-Beverenwe expect 9.1, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 31%

Lommel SKwe expect 10.0, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 42%

Offsidesleague average

Under 3.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%

We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.5 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.562%62%

3.540%43%

4.522%28%

5.511%17%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Waasland-Beverenwe expect 1.8, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 54%

Lommel SKwe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 38%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Lommel SK: 15 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 9 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
Waasland-Beveren: newly promoted
Waasland-Beveren: 19 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
Lommel SK: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form