Chinese Super LeagueMatchday 24

Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Tianjin Jinmen Tiger: prediction, tips and result

Saturday 22 August · 12:00

Wuhan Three Towns

2-3 2-0 1-0 1-1 2-3

0-0Full time(half time 0-0)

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger

2-4 1-2 3-2 2-0 2-0

Stadium:: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Wuhan
Referee:: Woo-sung Kim

Our tips

Main tip

Corners: Under 10.5Lost60%

under 10.5 corners in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (59% of league matches); 9.0 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 9.2 in the visitors', league average 10.1

Other tips

Cards: Under 4.5Won61%
under 4.5 cards in 5 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (55% of league matches)

For the brave

Corners: Under 9.5Lost48%

under 9.5 corners in 6 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (50% of league matches); 9.0 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 9.2 in the visitors', league average 10.1

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloWuhan Three Towns122245%32%Draw27%28%Tianjin Jinmen Tiger133428%40%favourite did not win

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%55%O2.554%50%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.3not both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

01/05/202601/05/26Tianjin Jinmen Tiger2:2Wuhan Three TownsD
14/09/202514/09/25Tianjin Jinmen Tiger4:0Wuhan Three TownsL
27/04/202527/04/25Wuhan Three Towns2:1Tianjin Jinmen TigerW
16/08/202416/08/24Tianjin Jinmen Tiger1:0Wuhan Three TownsL
26/04/202426/04/24Wuhan Three Towns2:1Tianjin Jinmen TigerW

Wuhan Three Towns's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses3.0 goals per match

Cornersleague corners9.9league 10.1under 10.5: 60%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 10.1 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 15

Cardsleague cards4.1league 4.2under 4.5: 61%Expected cards: 4.1 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 4.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.won · ended 2

RefereeW.-S. Kimfirst match in our data

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.6 : 1.2total 2.8Attack/defence1.4 : 1.3total 2.7

Wuhan Three Towns : Tianjin Jinmen Tiger

Most likely scores

Market1-112%2-19%1-09%0-1—1-27%2-08%0-0—Attack/defence1-113%2-18%1-09%0-19%1-28%2-0—0-07%

MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%2-12-19%2-18%1-01-09%1-09%0-10-1—0-19%1-21-27%1-28%2-02-08%2-0—0-00-0—0-07%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	79%75%	75%
12 – no draw	73%73%	73%
1X – home team avoid defeat	72%64%	64%
Under 3.5 goals	68%72%	72%
Both teams to score: yes	58%55%	55%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	55%63%	63%
Over 2.5 goals	54%50%	50%
Under 2.5 goals	46%50%	50%
1 – Wuhan Three Towns win	45%37% · Elo 32%	37%· Elo 32%
Both teams to score: no	42%45%	45%
Over 3.5 goals	32%28%	28%
2 – Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win	28%36% · Elo 40%	36%· Elo 40%
X – draw	27%27% · Elo 28%	27%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals	21%25%	25%

Attack vs defence

Wuhan Three Towns attack vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger defenceattack1438defence1535−97 pts to the attack

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger attack vs Wuhan Three Towns defenceattack1463defence1433+30 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger score a lot late on: 16 of 32 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
Wuhan Three Towns: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.

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