Chinese Super LeagueMatchday 23

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 2-4 Beijing Guoan: prediction, tips and result

Saturday 15 August · 12:35

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger

3-0 2-0 2-0 3-2 1-2

2-4Full time(half time 0-2)

Beijing Guoan

4-0 2-1 2-2 1-1 2-0

Stadium:: Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium, Tianjin
Referee:: Ilgiz Tantashev

Our tips

Main tip

Cards: Under 4.5Won61%

under 4.5 cards in 7 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (55% of league matches)

Other tips

Both Teams To Score: YesWon61%
Beijing Guoan: scored in each of their last 15 league matches
Corners: Under 10.5Lost60%
8.9 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 9.6 in the visitors', league average 10.1

For the brave

Correct Score: 1:1Lost12%

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloTianjin Jinmen Tiger133434%35%Draw26%28%Beijing Guoan146440%37%favourite won

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%58%O2.557%54%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.5both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

25/04/202625/04/26Beijing Guoan2:4Tianjin Jinmen TigerW
03/08/202503/08/25Beijing Guoan2:2Tianjin Jinmen TigerD
02/04/202502/04/25Tianjin Jinmen Tiger2:2Beijing GuoanD
21/07/202421/07/24Beijing Guoan2:0Tianjin Jinmen TigerL
30/04/202430/04/24Tianjin Jinmen Tiger0:1Beijing GuoanL

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses3.4 goals per match

Cornersleague corners9.9league 10.1under 10.5: 60%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 10.1 on average in the league.In this league 61% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 11

Cardsleague cards4.1league 4.2under 4.5: 61%Expected cards: 4.1 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 4.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 17%.won · ended 2

RefereeI. Tantashevfirst match in our data

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.4 : 1.6total 3.0Attack/defence1.4 : 1.5total 2.9

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger : Beijing Guoan

Most likely scores

Market1-112%1-29%0-17%2-18%1-06%0-2—Attack/defence1-112%1-29%0-18%2-18%1-08%0-26%

MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-21-29%1-29%0-10-17%0-18%2-12-18%2-18%1-01-06%1-08%0-20-2—0-26%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	81%78%	78%
12 – no draw	74%74%	74%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	66%66%	66%
Under 3.5 goals	65%68%	68%
Both teams to score: yes	61%58%	58%
1X – home team avoid defeat	60%60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	57%54%	54%
Under 2.5 goals	43%46%	46%
2 – Beijing Guoan win	40%40% · Elo 37%	40%· Elo 37%
Both teams to score: no	39%42%	42%
Over 3.5 goals	35%32%	32%
1 – Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win	34%35% · Elo 35%	35%· Elo 35%
X – draw	26%26% · Elo 28%	26%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals	19%22%	22%

Attack vs defence

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger attack vs Beijing Guoan defenceattack1461defence1545−84 pts to the attack

Beijing Guoan attack vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger defenceattack1641defence1543+98 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger concede a lot late on: 11 of 26 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
Beijing Guoan concede a lot late on: 11 of 27 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger score a lot late on: 15 of 30 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
Beijing Guoan: 8 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.

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