1. DivisionMatchday 12

Hillerod vs Aalborg: prediction, tips and stats

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Hillerod
3-11-11-01-10-2
1.4:1.3Pre-match
Aalborg
3-32-22-22-00-0

Our tips

Tip in 10d 9h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.

The match in numbers

1X2EloHillerod130041%38%Draw26%28%Aalborg131733%35%
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%O2.552%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Aalborg1:0HillerodL
  2. Aalborg3:3HillerodD
  3. Hillerod2:2AalborgD
  4. Hillerod1:2AalborgL
  5. Aalborg3:0HillerodL
Hillerod's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.9over 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.2league 3.2under 3.5: 59%Expected yellow cards: 3.2 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeno referee data

Prediction: result and goals

Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.6 : 1.4total 3.0Attack/defence1.4 : 1.3total 2.8
Hillerod : Aalborg
Most likely scores
Model1-112%2-19%1-07%0-1—1-28%0-0—2-06%Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%0-18%1-28%0-07%2-0—
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-07%1-09%0-10-1—0-18%1-21-28%1-28%0-00-0—0-07%2-02-06%2-0—
OutcomeModelAttack/defence
12 – no draw74%74%74%
1X – home team avoid defeat67%66%66%
X2 – away team avoid defeat59%60%60%
1 – Hillerod win41%40% · Elo 38%40%· Elo 38%
2 – Aalborg win33%34% · Elo 35%34%· Elo 35%
X – draw26%26% · Elo 28%26%· Elo 28%
Attack vs defence
Hillerod attack vs Aalborg defenceattack1499defence1492+7 pts to the attack
Aalborg attack vs Hillerod defenceattack1509defence1487+22 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 8.9 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.553%53%
9.541%45%
10.529%37%
11.520%28%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Hillerodwe expect 4.4, league average 4.6 · chance of over 4.5: 44%
Aalborgwe expect 4.5, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 46%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 69%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 31%over
We expect 22.5 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
18.575%50%
19.569%45%
20.562%43%
21.555%40%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Hillerodwe expect 12.2, league average 9.5 · chance of over 9.5: 75%
Aalborgwe expect 10.5, league average 10.4 · chance of over 10.5: 47%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 48%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.569%62%
3.548%42%
4.529%28%
5.516%18%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Hillerodwe expect 1.7, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 50%
Aalborgwe expect 1.9, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 55%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

League form

Hillerod

Aalborg

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Aalborg1035214:1414
11Hillerod1023513:169
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Hillerod vs Aalborg?

It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Hillerod win 41%, draw 26%, Aalborg win 33%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.

How many goals will there be in Hillerod vs Aalborg?

Expected goals: 3.0 (Hillerod 1.6, Aalborg 1.4). Most likely score: 1-1.

When is Hillerod vs Aalborg?

The 1. Division match kicks off 24 October 2026, 12:00 (UK time).

See also