SuperligaMatchday 12
Aarhus vs Viborg: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 11d 13hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS60%O2.557%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Viborg2:1AarhusL
- Aarhus6:2ViborgW
- Viborg1:2AarhusW
- Aarhus5:2ViborgW
- Viborg1:2AarhusW
Aarhus's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss4.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 9.9over 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.3league 3.3under 3.5: 59%Expected yellow cards: 3.3 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.7 : 1.3total 3.0Attack/defence1.7 : 1.3total 3.0
Aarhus : ViborgMost likely scores
Model1-112%2-19%1-08%2-07%1-27%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-08%2-07%1-27%0-16%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-08%1-08%2-02-07%2-07%1-21-27%1-27%0-10-1—0-16%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 74%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 72%70% | 70% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 54%55% | 55% |
| 1 – Aarhus win | 46%45% · Elo 41% | 45%· Elo 41% |
| 2 – Viborg win | 28%30% · Elo 31% | 30%· Elo 31% |
| X – draw | 26%25% · Elo 29% | 25%· Elo 29% |
Attack vs defence
Aarhus attack vs Viborg defenceattack1549defence1526+23 pts to the attack
Viborg attack vs Aarhus defenceattack1533defence1544−11 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 63%close to the league averageunderover 37%
We expect 8.7 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.550%53%
9.537%41%
10.526%34%
11.518%24%
Each team on its own
Aarhuswe expect 4.6, league average 5.0 · chance of over 5.5: 32%
Viborgwe expect 3.9, league average 4.0 · chance of over 4.5: 34%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 70%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 30%over
We expect 23.9 in this match, 20.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.576%57%
20.570%51%
21.564%39%
22.557%33%
Each team on its own
Aarhuswe expect 10.8, league average 10.0 · chance of over 10.5: 51%
Viborgwe expect 13.5, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 76%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 55%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 2.5 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.571%80%
2.545%54%
3.524%34%
4.511%18%
Each team on its own
Aarhuswe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Viborgwe expect 1.0, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 28%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Aarhus: only 8 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 16 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Aarhus concede a lot late on: 11 of 26 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Aarhus: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Viborg: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Viborg | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17:8 | 20 |
| 10 | Aarhus | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14:17 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Aarhus vs Viborg?
Aarhus are the favourites. Chances: Aarhus win 46%, draw 26%, Viborg win 28%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Aarhus vs Viborg?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Aarhus 1.7, Viborg 1.3). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Aarhus vs Viborg?
The Superliga match kicks off 25 October 2026, 17:00 (UK time).