SuperligaMatchday 11
FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%59%O2.560%59%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Aarhus2:0FC CopenhagenL
- FC Copenhagen2:3AarhusL
- Aarhus1:3FC CopenhagenW
- FC Copenhagen3:1AarhusW
- Aarhus1:1FC CopenhagenD
FC Copenhagen's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.6league 9.9under 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.6 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 45% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.3under 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.0 : 1.1total 3.1Attack/defence1.8 : 1.2total 3.0
FC Copenhagen : AarhusMost likely scores
Market1-111%2-110%2-09%1-08%3-17%1-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%2-08%1-08%3-16%1-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-09%2-08%1-01-08%1-08%3-13-17%3-16%1-21-2—1-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82%81% | 81% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 80%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%77% | 77% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62%64% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%59% | 59% |
| 1 – FC Copenhagen win | 58%52% · Elo 53% | 52%· Elo 53% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58%59% | 59% |
| Both teams to score: no | 42%41% | 41% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 41%48% | 48% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40%41% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38%36% | 36% |
| X – draw | 22%24% · Elo 26% | 24%· Elo 26% |
| 2 – Aarhus win | 19%25% · Elo 21% | 25%· Elo 21% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
FC Copenhagen attack vs Aarhus defenceattack1621defence1544+77 pts to the attack
Aarhus attack vs FC Copenhagen defenceattack1549defence1604−55 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 63%close to the league averageunderover 37%
We expect 8.7 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.550%53%
9.537%41%
10.526%34%
11.518%24%
Each team on its own
FC Copenhagenwe expect 5.1, league average 5.0 · chance of over 5.5: 39%
Aarhuswe expect 3.5, league average 4.0 · chance of over 4.5: 27%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 41%over
We expect 22.0 in this match, 20.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.566%57%
20.559%51%
21.551%39%
22.544%33%
Each team on its own
FC Copenhagenwe expect 11.4, league average 10.0 · chance of over 10.5: 57%
Aarhuswe expect 10.8, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 50%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.569%80%
2.543%54%
3.523%34%
4.510%18%
Each team on its own
FC Copenhagenwe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Aarhuswe expect 1.1, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 29%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- FC Copenhagen8 wins in a row at homeWent on 61%League 45%Model 58%Record 12
Worth knowing before kick-off
- FC Copenhagen score 2.4 goals per game
- Aarhus: only 8 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 16 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- FC Copenhagen: 24 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 19 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Aarhus concede a lot late on: 11 of 26 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- FC Copenhagen: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Aarhus: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 24:10 | 24 |
| 10 | Aarhus | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14:17 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus?
FC Copenhagen are the favourites. Chances: FC Copenhagen win 58%, draw 22%, Aarhus win 19%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus?
Expected goals: 3.1 (FC Copenhagen 2.0, Aarhus 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 60%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus?
The chance that both teams score is 58%.
When is FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus?
The Superliga match kicks off 18 October 2026, 17:00 (UK time).