SuperligaMatchday 12
Horsens vs Sonderjyske: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS63%O2.560%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Sonderjyske2:5HorsensW
- Horsens1:4SonderjyskeL
- Sonderjyske5:0HorsensL
- Horsens1:2SonderjyskeL
- Sonderjyske2:3HorsensW
Horsens's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses5.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.9under 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 45% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.3under 3.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model2.3 : 1.5total 3.8Attack/defence1.7 : 1.5total 3.1
Horsens : SonderjyskeMost likely scores
Model1-19%2-19%1-26%1-0—2-27%3-17%2-0—Attack/defence1-111%2-19%1-28%1-07%2-27%3-1—2-06%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-19%1-111%2-12-19%2-19%1-21-26%1-28%1-01-0—1-07%2-22-27%2-27%3-13-17%3-1—2-02-0—2-06%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 79%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 75%67% | 67% |
| 1 – Horsens win | 54%43% · Elo 32% | 43%· Elo 32% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 46%57% | 57% |
| 2 – Sonderjyske win | 25%33% · Elo 40% | 33%· Elo 40% |
| X – draw | 21%24% · Elo 29% | 24%· Elo 29% |
Attack vs defence
Horsens attack vs Sonderjyske defenceattack1445defence1419+26 pts to the attack
Sonderjyske attack vs Horsens defenceattack1456defence1410+46 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 9.0 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.554%53%
9.542%41%
10.530%34%
11.521%24%
Each team on its own
Horsenswe expect 5.5, league average 5.0 · chance of over 5.5: 46%
Sonderjyskewe expect 3.6, league average 4.0 · chance of over 4.5: 31%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 41%over
We expect 22.1 in this match, 20.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.566%57%
20.559%51%
21.552%39%
22.545%33%
Each team on its own
Horsenswe expect 11.5, league average 10.0 · chance of over 10.5: 58%
Sonderjyskewe expect 10.8, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 50%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 56%close to the league averageunder 44%over
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.579%80%
2.556%54%
3.534%34%
4.518%18%
Each team on its own
Horsenswe expect 1.9, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Sonderjyskewe expect 1.1, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 30%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sonderjyske concede 2.4 goals per game
- Horsens: newly promoted
- Horsens: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Sonderjyske: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Horsens | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18:19 | 12 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12:24 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Horsens vs Sonderjyske?
Horsens are the favourites. Chances: Horsens win 54%, draw 21%, Sonderjyske win 25%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Horsens vs Sonderjyske?
Expected goals: 3.8 (Horsens 2.3, Sonderjyske 1.5). Most likely score: 2-1.
When is Horsens vs Sonderjyske?
The Superliga match kicks off 25 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).