ChampionshipMatchday 9

Charlton 1-1 Bristol City: prediction, tips and result

·

Charlton
1-10-40-00-01-3
1-1Full time(half time 1-1)
Bristol City
1-00-11-42-13-1
Stadium:
The Valley, London
Referee:
Tom Reeves

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Yellow Cards: Under 3.5Won57%

referee Tom Reeves averages 3.2 yellow cards a match, league average 3.8; under 3.5 yellow cards in 5 of the hosts' last 8 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 8 (49% of league matches)

Other tips

  • Shots on Target – Charlton: Under 4.5Won67%

    Charlton: 3.0 shots on target a match, Bristol City's opponents had 2.9 on average, league average 4.4; under 4.5 shots on target in 7 of their last 8 league matches, Bristol City's opponents had under 4.5 in 6 of 8 (57% of league matches)

  • Offsides: Under 3.5Won55%

    3.5 offsides a match in the hosts' matches, 2.6 in the visitors', league average 3.7

For the brave
Yellow Cards: Under 2.5Lost35%

referee Tom Reeves averages 3.2 yellow cards a match, league average 3.8

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloCharlton148630%34%Draw28%28%Bristol City155642%38%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS51%50%O2.545%44%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.2both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Charlton1:2Bristol CityL
  2. Bristol City0:0CharltonD
  3. Charlton3:2Bristol CityW
  4. Bristol City2:1CharltonL
  5. Charlton0:1Bristol CityL
Charlton's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.7league 10.4under 10.5: 50%Expected corners: 10.7 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 10
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.3league 3.8under 3.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 3.3 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 6%.won · ended 3
RefereeT. Reeves−0.7 yellow cards vs average33 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)69%1X0:1coverageleague 79% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.1 : 1.4total 2.5Attack/defence1.3 : 1.2total 2.4
Charlton : Bristol City
Most likely scores
Market1-114%0-111%1-08%0-09%1-29%2-1—Attack/defence1-113%0-110%1-011%0-09%1-28%2-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%0-10-111%0-110%1-01-08%1-011%0-00-09%0-09%1-21-29%1-28%2-12-1—2-18%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals76%77%77%
12 – no draw72%72%72%
Over 1.5 goals72%70%70%
X2 – away team avoid defeat70%63%63%
1X – home team avoid defeat58%65%65%
Under 2.5 goals55%56%56%
Both teams to score: yes51%50%50%
Both teams to score: no49%50%50%
Over 2.5 goals45%44%44%
2 – Bristol City win42%35% · Elo 38%35%· Elo 38%
1 – Charlton win30%37% · Elo 34%37%· Elo 34%
X – draw28%28% · Elo 28%28%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals28%30%30%
Over 3.5 goals24%23%23%
Attack vs defence
Charlton attack vs Bristol City defenceattack1406defence1503−97 pts to the attack
Bristol City attack vs Charlton defenceattack1474defence1471+3 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 50%close to the league averageunder 50%over
We expect 7.7 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.564%67%
7.550%55%
8.537%39%
9.525%29%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Charltonwe expect 3.8, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 34%
Bristol Citywe expect 3.7, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 21.0 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
19.559%57%
20.552%47%
21.544%37%
22.537%33%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Charltonwe expect 10.6, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 59%
Bristol Citywe expect 11.0, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 53%
Referee: 18.8 fouls per match on average (10 matches in our data)−1.0 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.566%66%
3.545%48%
4.526%31%
5.514%19%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Charltonwe expect 2.0, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 57%
Bristol Citywe expect 1.4, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 42%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

League form

Charlton

Bristol City

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Bristol City1042412:1414
12Charlton1035210:1314
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Charlton vs Bristol City?

Charlton 1-1 Bristol City (half time 1-1).

Did the Charlton vs Bristol City tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Yellow Cards: Under 3.5. The tip won.

See also