League OneMatchday 13
Luton vs Leicester: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%O2.560%58%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Leicester1:1LutonD
- Luton2:0LeicesterW
- Luton1:2LeicesterL
- Leicester0:2LutonW
- Leicester1:1LutonD
Luton's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.7league 10.5over 10.5: 50%Expected corners: 10.7 in this match, 10.5 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.7over 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.9 : 1.2total 3.1Attack/defence1.8 : 1.2total 3.0
Luton : LeicesterMost likely scores
Model1-110%2-110%1-09%2-08%1-2—3-16%Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-09%2-08%1-26%3-16%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-110%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-09%1-09%2-02-08%2-08%1-21-2—1-26%3-13-16%3-16%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 77%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63%64% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%58% | 58% |
| 1 – Luton win | 55%51% · Elo 33% | 51%· Elo 33% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 45%49% | 49% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41%42% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37%36% | 36% |
| 2 – Leicester win | 23%25% · Elo 39% | 25%· Elo 39% |
| X – draw | 22%24% · Elo 28% | 24%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
Luton attack vs Leicester defenceattack1585defence1479+106 pts to the attack
Leicester attack vs Luton defenceattack1483defence1491−8 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Luton matches average 5.4 cards (league 3.8) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Leicester: newly promoted
- Luton: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Leicester: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Luton | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16:15 | 11 |
| 17 | Leicester | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10:14 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Luton vs Leicester?
Luton are the favourites. Chances: Luton win 55%, draw 22%, Leicester win 23%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Luton vs Leicester?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Luton 1.9, Leicester 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 60%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Luton vs Leicester?
The League One match kicks off 24 October 2026, 12:30 (UK time).