Premier LeagueMatchday 6
Coventry 4-1 Newcastle: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry
- Referee:
- John Brooks
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Cards – Newcastle (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5Won64%
Newcastle: under 2.5 card points in 4 of their last 5 league matches, Coventry's opponents collected under 2.5 card points in 4 of 5 (61% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total
For the brave
Correct Score: 1:1Lost12%
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%58%O2.561%55%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.6both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Newcastle4:1CoventryL
- Coventry0:2NewcastleL
- Newcastle3:1CoventryL
- Coventry0:2NewcastleL
- Newcastle2:0CoventryL
Coventry's record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.9under 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 9.5 corners.won · ended 8
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.0league 3.8over 3.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 4.0 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.lost · ended 2
RefereeJ. Brooks+0.9 yellow cards vs average21 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)72%U3.52:2coverageleague 76% · H2H 3/5not covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.8total 3.1Attack/defence1.3 : 1.6total 2.9
Coventry : NewcastleMost likely scores
Market1-111%1-29%0-17%2-17%0-27%1-0—Attack/defence1-112%1-29%0-19%2-18%0-27%1-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-21-29%1-29%0-10-17%0-19%2-12-17%2-18%0-20-27%0-27%1-01-0—1-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%75% | 75% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 73%69% | 69% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62%67% | 67% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62%58% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61%55% | 55% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 52%56% | 56% |
| 2 – Newcastle win | 48%44% · Elo 64% | 44%· Elo 64% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%45% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38%33% | 33% |
| Both teams to score: no | 38%42% | 42% |
| 1 – Coventry win | 27%31% · Elo 15% | 31%· Elo 15% |
| X – draw | 25%25% · Elo 21% | 25%· Elo 21% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Coventry attack vs Newcastle defenceattack1381defence1468−87 pts to the attack
Newcastle attack vs Coventry defenceattack1531defence1410+121 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.557%57%
8.543%45%
9.531%32%
10.521%21%
Each team on its own
Coventrywe expect 4.4, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 44%
Newcastlewe expect 3.8, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 52%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 22.0 in this match, 21.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.558%52%
21.551%46%
22.544%37%
23.537%30%
Each team on its own
Coventrywe expect 11.3, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 56%
Newcastlewe expect 10.5, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 47%
Referee: 21.2 fouls per match on average (20 matches in our data)+0.4 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.568%63%
3.547%43%
4.528%23%
5.515%13%
Each team on its own
Coventrywe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Newcastlewe expect 1.9, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 54%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Coventry: newly promoted
- Coventry: 23 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Newcastle: 23 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:13 | 8 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5:11 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Coventry vs Newcastle?
Coventry 4-1 Newcastle (half time 1-0).
Did the Coventry vs Newcastle tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Cards – Newcastle (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5. The tip won.