2. BundesligaMatchday 9
Heidenheim vs Cottbus: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 6hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%O2.559%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.3
H2Hhome side's goals firstnever met
Cornersleague corners11.1league 10.3over 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 11.1 in this match, 10.3 on average in the league.In this league 44% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.3league 4.5under 4.5: 58%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.5 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model2.3 : 1.8total 4.2Attack/defence1.7 : 1.3total 3.1
Heidenheim : CottbusMost likely scores
Model1-17%2-18%1-0—1-26%2-27%2-0—3-16%Attack/defence1-111%2-19%1-08%1-27%2-26%2-07%3-1—
ModelAttack/defence1-11-17%1-111%2-12-18%2-19%1-01-0—1-08%1-21-26%1-27%2-22-27%2-26%2-02-0—2-07%3-13-16%3-1—
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 80%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 69%70% | 70% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 51%54% | 54% |
| 1 – Heidenheim win | 49%46% · Elo 65% | 46%· Elo 65% |
| 2 – Cottbus win | 31%30% · Elo 15% | 30%· Elo 15% |
| X – draw | 20%24% · Elo 20% | 24%· Elo 20% |
Attack vs defence
Heidenheim attack vs Cottbus defenceattack1512defence1488+24 pts to the attack
Cottbus attack vs Heidenheim defenceattack1521defence1519+2 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 10.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 11.0 in this match, 10.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.9.565%56%
10.553%52%
11.542%41%
12.532%35%
Each team on its own
Heidenheimwe expect 5.7, league average 5.5 · chance of over 5.5: 49%
Cottbuswe expect 5.4, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 45%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 20.3 in this match, 21.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.546%57%
21.539%54%
22.532%44%
23.526%40%
Each team on its own
Heidenheimwe expect 9.8, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 39%
Cottbuswe expect 10.3, league average 11.3 · chance of over 11.5: 34%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.565%65%
3.544%37%
4.525%30%
5.513%16%
Each team on its own
Heidenheimwe expect 2.4, league average 2.0 · chance of over 1.5: 68%
Cottbuswe expect 1.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 29%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Heidenheim: newly promoted
- Cottbus: newly promoted
- Heidenheim: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Cottbus: 8 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heidenheim | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14:12 | 14 |
| 8 | Cottbus | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15:16 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Heidenheim vs Cottbus?
Heidenheim are the favourites. Chances: Heidenheim win 49%, draw 20%, Cottbus win 31%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Heidenheim vs Cottbus?
Expected goals: 4.2 (Heidenheim 2.3, Cottbus 1.8). Most likely score: 2-1.
When is Heidenheim vs Cottbus?
The 2. Bundesliga match kicks off 24 October 2026, 12:00 (UK time).