J1 LeagueMatchday 10
Verdy vs FC Tokyo: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 2hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS47%45%O2.545%40%|exp. goals 1.0 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- FC Tokyo2:1VerdyL
- Verdy0:0FC TokyoD
- FC Tokyo1:0VerdyL
- Verdy2:2FC TokyoD
- FC Tokyo0:0VerdyD
Verdy's record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses1.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.3league 9.4under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.6league 2.6under 2.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 2.6 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market0.9 : 1.6total 2.5Attack/defence1.0 : 1.3total 2.3
Verdy : FC TokyoMost likely scores
Market1-113%0-113%0-211%0-09%1-0—1-29%Attack/defence1-113%0-113%0-29%0-011%1-010%1-29%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%0-10-113%0-113%0-20-211%0-29%0-00-09%0-011%1-01-0—1-010%1-21-29%1-29%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 80%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%71% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71%66% | 66% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55%61% | 61% |
| 2 – FC Tokyo win | 54%44% · Elo 51% | 44%· Elo 51% |
| Both teams to score: no | 53%55% | 55% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47%45% | 45% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 46%56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45%40% | 40% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29%34% | 34% |
| X – draw | 26%29% · Elo 26% | 29%· Elo 26% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24%19% | 19% |
| 1 – Verdy win | 20%27% · Elo 23% | 27%· Elo 23% |
Attack vs defence
Verdy attack vs FC Tokyo defenceattack1348defence1554−206 pts to the attack
FC Tokyo attack vs Verdy defenceattack1546defence1503+43 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 61%close to the league averageunderover 39%
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.552%53%
8.539%39%
9.527%28%
10.518%23%
Each team on its own
Verdywe expect 3.3, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 24%
FC Tokyowe expect 4.3, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 61%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 20.9 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.565%58%
19.558%49%
20.551%42%
21.544%35%
Each team on its own
Verdywe expect 10.6, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 60%
FC Tokyowe expect 10.5, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 47%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 75%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 25%
We expect 2.5 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.546%54%
3.525%35%
4.512%19%
5.55%13%
Each team on its own
Verdywe expect 1.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
FC Tokyowe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 30%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- FC Tokyo4 clean sheets in a rowaway: 1Went on 35%League 22%Model 42%Record 9
- Verdy12 matches without a winat home: 8Went on 73%League 54%Model 80%Record 21
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Verdy score only 0.6 goals per game
- FC Tokyo: 4 wins in a row
- Verdy: no win in 12 matches
- Verdy: only 4 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 11 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Verdy: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- FC Tokyo: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:8 | 20 |
| 20 | Verdy | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4:14 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Verdy vs FC Tokyo?
FC Tokyo are the favourites. Chances: Verdy win 20%, draw 26%, FC Tokyo win 54%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Verdy vs FC Tokyo?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Verdy 0.9, FC Tokyo 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 45%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Verdy vs FC Tokyo?
The chance that both teams score is 47%.
When is Verdy vs FC Tokyo?
The J1 League match kicks off 17 October 2026, 06:00 (UK time).