EliteserienMatchday 12
Sarpsborg 08 vs Aalesund: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 11d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS63%O2.571%64%|exp. goals 2.1 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Aalesund2:4Sarpsborg 08W
- Aalesund3:2Sarpsborg 08L
- Sarpsborg 083:1AalesundW
- Aalesund1:3Sarpsborg 08W
- Sarpsborg 081:2AalesundL
Sarpsborg 08's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses4.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners11.5league 10.9over 10.5: 59%Expected corners: 11.5 in this match, 10.9 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.3under 3.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model2.3 : 1.4total 3.7Attack/defence2.1 : 1.3total 3.3
Sarpsborg 08 : AalesundMost likely scores
Model2-19%1-18%2-07%1-0—3-17%2-26%Attack/defence2-110%1-110%2-08%1-07%3-17%2-26%
ModelAttack/defence2-12-19%2-110%1-11-18%1-110%2-02-07%2-08%1-01-0—1-07%3-13-17%3-17%2-22-26%2-26%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88%84% | 84% |
| 12 – no draw | 80%78% | 78% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 79%78% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71%64% | 64% |
| 1 – Sarpsborg 08 win | 59%56% · Elo 64% | 56%· Elo 64% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 50%58% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50%42% | 42% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 41%44% | 44% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29%36% | 36% |
| 2 – Aalesund win | 22%23% · Elo 16% | 23%· Elo 16% |
| X – draw | 20%22% · Elo 20% | 22%· Elo 20% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12%16% | 16% |
Attack vs defence
Sarpsborg 08 attack vs Aalesund defenceattack1480defence1386+94 pts to the attack
Aalesund attack vs Sarpsborg 08 defenceattack1472defence1495−23 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 50%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 50%
We expect 9.7 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.562%55%
9.550%43%
10.538%35%
11.528%21%
Each team on its own
Sarpsborg 08we expect 5.7, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 50%
Aalesundwe expect 4.3, league average 4.0 · chance of over 4.5: 42%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 21.7 in this match, 20.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.564%56%
20.557%52%
21.549%43%
22.542%35%
Each team on its own
Sarpsborg 08we expect 10.4, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 46%
Aalesundwe expect 11.4, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 57%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 2.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.573%73%
2.549%50%
3.527%28%
4.513%12%
Each team on its own
Sarpsborg 08we expect 1.5, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Aalesundwe expect 1.2, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Aalesund concede 2.8 goals per game
- Aalesund matches average 13.9 corners (league 10.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Sarpsborg 08: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Aalesund: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 28:31 | 28 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 35:50 | 21 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sarpsborg 08 vs Aalesund?
Sarpsborg 08 are the favourites. Chances: Sarpsborg 08 win 59%, draw 20%, Aalesund win 22%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Sarpsborg 08 vs Aalesund?
Expected goals: 3.7 (Sarpsborg 08 2.3, Aalesund 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 71%. Most likely score: 2-1.
When is Sarpsborg 08 vs Aalesund?
The Eliteserien match kicks off 25 October 2026, 16:00 (UK time).