1. LigaMatchday 11
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%58%O2.559%56%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Arka Gdynia2:2Lechia GdanskD
- Lechia Gdansk1:0Arka GdyniaW
- Lechia Gdansk2:1Arka GdyniaW
- Arka Gdynia1:0Lechia GdanskL
- Lechia Gdansk4:3Arka GdyniaW
Lechia Gdansk's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.8league 11.1under 11.5: 60%Expected corners: 10.8 in this match, 11.1 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 11.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.8under 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.4total 3.0Attack/defence1.6 : 1.3total 2.9
Lechia Gdansk : Arka GdyniaMost likely scores
Market1-112%2-19%1-07%1-28%2-0—0-1—2-26%Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%1-27%2-07%0-17%2-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-07%1-09%1-21-28%1-27%2-02-0—2-07%0-10-1—0-17%2-22-26%2-2—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 68%70% | 70% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63%67% | 67% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62%58% | 58% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 60%55% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59%56% | 56% |
| 1 – Lechia Gdansk win | 41%45% · Elo 48% | 45%· Elo 48% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41%44% | 44% |
| Both teams to score: no | 38%42% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37%33% | 33% |
| 2 – Arka Gdynia win | 33%30% · Elo 25% | 30%· Elo 25% |
| X – draw | 27%25% · Elo 27% | 25%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18%21% | 21% |
Attack vs defence
Lechia Gdansk attack vs Arka Gdynia defenceattack1548defence1507+41 pts to the attack
Arka Gdynia attack vs Lechia Gdansk defenceattack1503defence1497+6 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 8.0 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.568%64%
7.554%48%
8.541%36%
9.529%28%
Each team on its own
Lechia Gdanskwe expect 4.4, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 44%
Arka Gdyniawe expect 3.7, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 50%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 24.2 in this match, 25.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.24.546%54%
25.540%51%
26.534%44%
27.528%36%
Each team on its own
Lechia Gdanskwe expect 13.0, league average 13.1 · chance of over 13.5: 42%
Arka Gdyniawe expect 11.1, league average 12.6 · chance of over 12.5: 33%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 2.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.573%74%
2.548%49%
3.526%28%
4.512%16%
Each team on its own
Lechia Gdanskwe expect 1.2, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Arka Gdyniawe expect 1.4, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Lechia Gdansk: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Lechia Gdansk concede a lot late on: 7 of 16 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Lechia Gdansk: newly promoted
- Arka Gdynia: newly promoted
- Lechia Gdansk: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Arka Gdynia: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lechia Gdansk | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12:13 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Lechia Gdansk win 41%, draw 27%, Arka Gdynia win 33%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Lechia Gdansk 1.6, Arka Gdynia 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia?
The chance that both teams score is 62%.
When is Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia?
The 1. Liga match kicks off 18 October 2026, 19:30 (UK time).