1. LigaMatchday 12

Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia: prediction, tips and stats

Saturday 24 October · 14:30

Unia Skierniewice

0-1 1-3 3-2 1-1 2-2

1.6:1.3Pre-match

Polonia

1-0 0-0 2-2 0-0 1-1

Our tips

Tip in 10d 7h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.

The match in numbers

1X2EloUnia Skierniewice129234%35%Draw25%29%Polonia133042%36%

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%O2.560%55%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.3

H2Hhome side's goals firstnever met

Cornersleague corners10.9league 11.1under 11.5: 60%Expected corners: 10.9 in this match, 11.1 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 11.5 corners.

Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.

Refereeawaiting appointment

Prediction: result and goals

Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Model1.5 : 1.7total 3.1Attack/defence1.6 : 1.3total 2.9

Unia Skierniewice : Polonia

Most likely scores

Model1-111%2-18%1-29%1-0—0-17%2-0—2-27%Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-28%1-09%0-17%2-07%2-2—

ModelAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%2-12-18%2-19%1-21-29%1-28%1-01-0—1-09%0-10-17%0-17%2-02-0—2-07%2-22-27%2-2—

Outcome	Model	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	83%78%	78%
12 – no draw	75%75%	75%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	66%57%	57%
Under 3.5 goals	62%68%	68%
Over 2.5 goals	60%55%	55%
1X – home team avoid defeat	59%68%	68%
2 – Polonia win	42%32% · Elo 36%	32%· Elo 36%
Under 2.5 goals	40%45%	45%
Over 3.5 goals	38%32%	32%
1 – Unia Skierniewice win	34%43% · Elo 35%	43%· Elo 35%
X – draw	25%25% · Elo 29%	25%· Elo 29%
Under 1.5 goals	18%22%	22%

Attack vs defence

Unia Skierniewice attack vs Polonia defenceattack1505defence1488+17 pts to the attack

Polonia attack vs Unia Skierniewice defenceattack1509defence1487+22 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Over 7.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over

We expect 8.2 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

6.570%64%

7.557%48%

8.544%36%

9.532%28%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Unia Skierniewicewe expect 4.3, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 43%

Poloniawe expect 4.1, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 57%

Foulsleague average

Over 25.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 41%over

We expect 27.2 in this match, 25.7 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

24.565%54%

25.559%51%

26.552%44%

27.546%36%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Unia Skierniewicewe expect 12.8, league average 13.1 · chance of over 13.5: 40%

Poloniawe expect 14.6, league average 12.6 · chance of over 12.5: 67%

Offsidesleague average

Over 2.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 46%over

We expect 2.9 in this match, 2.7 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

1.577%74%

2.554%49%

3.532%28%

4.516%16%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Unia Skierniewicewe expect 0.9, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 23%

Poloniawe expect 2.0, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 59%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Unia Skierniewice: newly promoted
Unia Skierniewice: 8 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
Polonia: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.

League form