EkstraklasaMatchday 11
Zaglebie vs Jagiellonia: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%58%O2.554%54%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Jagiellonia1:0ZaglebieL
- Zaglebie0:0JagielloniaD
- Jagiellonia1:3ZaglebieW
- Zaglebie1:3JagielloniaL
- Zaglebie1:2JagielloniaL
Zaglebie's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.5league 9.7under 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.5 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 4.0over 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 4.0 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.5total 2.9Attack/defence1.5 : 1.4total 2.9
Zaglebie : JagielloniaMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-29%2-18%1-07%0-18%2-0—Attack/defence1-112%1-28%2-19%1-08%0-18%2-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%1-21-29%1-28%2-12-18%2-19%1-01-07%1-08%0-10-18%0-18%2-02-0—2-06%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69%68% | 68% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 66%60% | 60% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 61%66% | 66% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58%58% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54%54% | 54% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46%46% | 46% |
| Both teams to score: no | 42%42% | 42% |
| 2 – Jagiellonia win | 39%34% · Elo 40% | 34%· Elo 40% |
| 1 – Zaglebie win | 34%40% · Elo 31% | 40%· Elo 31% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31%32% | 32% |
| X – draw | 27%26% · Elo 29% | 26%· Elo 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Zaglebie attack vs Jagiellonia defenceattack1456defence1490−34 pts to the attack
Jagiellonia attack vs Zaglebie defenceattack1552defence1499+53 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 50%close to the league averageunderover 50%
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.563%61%
8.550%52%
9.537%39%
10.527%24%
Each team on its own
Zaglebiewe expect 4.9, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 53%
Jagielloniawe expect 3.9, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 53%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 55%close to the league averageunder 45%over
We expect 24.6 in this match, 23.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.562%60%
23.555%53%
24.548%48%
25.542%42%
Each team on its own
Zaglebiewe expect 11.8, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 51%
Jagielloniawe expect 12.8, league average 12.0 · chance of over 12.5: 51%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 55%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 2.5 in this match, 2.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.570%75%
2.545%50%
3.524%32%
4.511%17%
Each team on its own
Zaglebiewe expect 0.9, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 24%
Jagielloniawe expect 1.5, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Zaglebie concede a lot late on: 10 of 23 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Zaglebie: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Jagiellonia: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Zaglebie | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13:16 | 12 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Zaglebie vs Jagiellonia?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Zaglebie win 34%, draw 27%, Jagiellonia win 39%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Zaglebie vs Jagiellonia?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Zaglebie 1.4, Jagiellonia 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie vs Jagiellonia?
The chance that both teams score is 58%.
When is Zaglebie vs Jagiellonia?
The Ekstraklasa match kicks off 18 October 2026, 13:45 (UK time).