EkstraklasaMatchday 10

Jagiellonia 1-3 Gornik Z.: prediction, tips and result

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Jagiellonia
5-21-22-10-21-3
1-3Full time(half time 0-0)
Gornik Z.
0-02-02-11-02-1
Stadium:
Bialystok City Stadium, Bialystok
Referee:
Wojciech Myc

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5Lost67%

referee Wojciech Myc averages 3.7 card points a match, league average 4.2; our numbers: 3.8 card points against a league average of 4.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Fouls: Over 23.5Won63%

    referee Wojciech Myc averages 25.1 fouls a match, league average 23.8; our numbers: 25.9 fouls against a league average of 23.8

  • Offsides: Under 2.5Won63%

    our numbers: 2.2 offsides against a league average of 2.8; 1.9 offsides a match in the hosts' matches, 2.4 in the visitors', league average 2.8

  • Shots on Target – Jagiellonia: Under 4.5Won57%

    Jagiellonia: 4.2 shots on target a match, Gornik Z.'s opponents had 3.3 on average, league average 4.7; under 4.5 shots on target in 4 of their last 8 league matches, Gornik Z.'s opponents had under 4.5 in 7 of 9 (49% of league matches)

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5Lost49%

referee Wojciech Myc averages 3.7 card points a match, league average 4.2; under 3.5 card points in 7 of the hosts' last 8 league matches and 3 of the visitors' last 9 (43% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloJagiellonia170436%45%Draw28%28%Gornik Z.170837%27%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%56%O2.552%51%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.3both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Jagiellonia1:2Gornik Z.L
  2. Gornik Z.2:1JagielloniaL
  3. Jagiellonia1:1Gornik Z.D
  4. Gornik Z.0:2JagielloniaW
  5. Gornik Z.2:1JagielloniaL
Jagiellonia's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.8under 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.8 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 9.5 corners.won · ended 8
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 4.0over 3.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 4.0 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 7%.won · ended 6
RefereeW. Myc−0.3 yellow cards vs average33 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)73%1X1:2coverageleague 78% · H2H 5/5not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.4total 2.8Attack/defence1.5 : 1.3total 2.7
Jagiellonia : Gornik Z.
Most likely scores
Market1-113%1-08%2-18%1-28%0-18%2-0—Attack/defence1-112%1-09%2-19%1-28%0-18%2-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%1-01-08%1-09%2-12-18%2-19%1-21-28%1-28%0-10-18%0-18%2-02-0—2-07%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals77%76%76%
12 – no draw73%74%74%
Under 3.5 goals71%71%71%
X2 – away team avoid defeat65%58%58%
1X – home team avoid defeat64%68%68%
Both teams to score: yes57%56%56%
Over 2.5 goals52%51%51%
Under 2.5 goals48%49%49%
Both teams to score: no43%44%44%
2 – Gornik Z. win37%32% · Elo 27%32%· Elo 27%
1 – Jagiellonia win36%42% · Elo 45%42%· Elo 45%
Over 3.5 goals29%29%29%
X – draw28%26% · Elo 28%26%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals23%24%24%
Attack vs defence
Jagiellonia attack vs Gornik Z. defenceattack1559defence1590−31 pts to the attack
Gornik Z. attack vs Jagiellonia defenceattack1514defence1500+14 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 8.6 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.562%61%
8.549%51%
9.536%39%
10.526%25%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Jagielloniawe expect 4.3, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 43%
Gornik Z.we expect 4.2, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 59%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 63%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 37%over
We expect 25.9 in this match, 23.8 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
22.569%59%
23.563%52%
24.557%47%
25.551%41%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Jagielloniawe expect 12.7, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 59%
Gornik Z.we expect 11.1, league average 12.0 · chance of over 11.5: 43%
Referee: 25.1 fouls per match on average (30 matches in our data)+3.6 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 2.2 in this match, 2.8 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.564%75%
2.537%50%
3.518%32%
4.57%17%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Jagielloniawe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Gornik Z.we expect 0.9, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 21%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Jagiellonia matches average only 2.8 cards (league 4.1) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Gornik Z.: 25 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 16 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Gornik Z. concede a lot late on: 7 of 15 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
  • Jagiellonia: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Gornik Z.: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Jagiellonia

Gornik Z.

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Gornik Z.1081119:925
10Jagiellonia940513:1612
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Jagiellonia vs Gornik Z.?

Jagiellonia 1-3 Gornik Z. (half time 0-0).

Did the Jagiellonia vs Gornik Z. tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5. The tip lost.

See also