Liga Portugal 2Matchday 8
AVS vs Tondela: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS49%51%O2.542%45%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.2
H2Hlast 4 meetings
- Tondela0:0AVSD
- AVS2:2TondelaD
- AVS0:1TondelaL
- Tondela3:2AVSL
AVS's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses2.5 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.1league 9.5under 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows5.4league 5.5under 5.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 5.4 in this match, 5.5 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 5.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 32%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.1 : 1.3total 2.4Attack/defence1.3 : 1.2total 2.5
AVS : TondelaMost likely scores
Market1-114%0-111%1-09%0-010%2-1—1-28%Attack/defence1-113%0-19%1-011%0-09%2-18%1-28%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%0-10-111%0-19%1-01-09%1-011%0-00-010%0-09%2-12-1—2-18%1-21-28%1-28%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 79%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 70%72% | 72% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 69%61% | 61% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69%71% | 71% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 59%67% | 67% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58%55% | 55% |
| Both teams to score: no | 51%49% | 49% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49%51% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42%45% | 45% |
| 2 – Tondela win | 40%33% · Elo 34% | 33%· Elo 34% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31%29% | 29% |
| 1 – AVS win | 30%39% · Elo 38% | 39%· Elo 38% |
| X – draw | 29%28% · Elo 28% | 28%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
AVS attack vs Tondela defenceattack1488defence1512−24 pts to the attack
Tondela attack vs AVS defenceattack1490defence1469+21 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 8.3 in this match, 8.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.558%55%
8.545%40%
9.533%34%
10.522%18%
Each team on its own
AVSwe expect 3.4, league average 4.6 · chance of over 4.5: 26%
Tondelawe expect 4.7, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 67%
Foulsleague average
Over 26.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 27.9 in this match, 26.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.25.562%52%
26.556%45%
27.550%44%
28.544%36%
Each team on its own
AVSwe expect 14.1, league average 13.3 · chance of over 13.5: 54%
Tondelawe expect 14.0, league average 12.9 · chance of over 12.5: 61%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.569%69%
2.543%42%
3.522%26%
4.510%14%
Each team on its own
AVSwe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Tondelawe expect 1.2, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Tondela6 matches in a row without BTTSaway: 3Went on 51%League 57%Model 51%Record 17
Worth knowing before kick-off
- AVS: newly promoted
- Tondela: newly promoted
- AVS: 16 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Tondela: 15 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8:6 | 12 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:7 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AVS vs Tondela?
Tondela are the favourites. Chances: AVS win 30%, draw 29%, Tondela win 40%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in AVS vs Tondela?
Expected goals: 2.4 (AVS 1.1, Tondela 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 42%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in AVS vs Tondela?
The chance that both teams score is 49%.
When is AVS vs Tondela?
The Liga Portugal 2 match kicks off 25 October 2026, 11:00 (UK time).