Liga Portugal 2Matchday 7
Penafiel 1-2 AVS: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel
- Referee:
- Jose Carlos Silva Campos Rodrigues
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Corners: Under 9.5Lost60%
7.6 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 7.7 in the visitors', league average 9.5; under 9.5 corners in 4 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 4 of the visitors' last 6 (55% of league matches)
For the brave
Corners: Under 8.5Lost47%
7.6 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 7.7 in the visitors', league average 9.5; under 8.5 corners in 3 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 4 of the visitors' last 6 (41% of league matches)
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS48%52%O2.545%48%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.1both scored
H2Hlast 2 meetings
- Penafiel0:1AVSL
- AVS1:0PenafielL
Penafiel's record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses1.0 goals per match
too few to read anything intoCornersleague corners8.9league 9.5under 9.5: 60%Expected corners: 8.9 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.lost · ended 10
Yellow cardsleague yellows5.3league 5.5under 5.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 5.3 in this match, 5.5 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 5.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 33%.won · ended 3
RefereeJ. Carlos Silva Campos Rodrigues−0.1 yellow cards vs average2 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)73%X21:02:1coverageleague 80% · H2H 2/2covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 0.9total 2.4Attack/defence1.5 : 1.1total 2.6
Penafiel : AVSMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-012%2-010%2-19%0-09%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-011%2-08%2-19%0-08%0-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-012%1-011%2-02-010%2-08%2-12-19%2-19%0-00-09%0-08%0-10-1—0-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 78%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 77%74% | 74% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71%73% | 73% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: no | 52%48% | 48% |
| 1 – Penafiel win | 51%46% · Elo 32% | 46%· Elo 32% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 49%54% | 54% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48%52% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45%48% | 48% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29%27% | 27% |
| X – draw | 27%27% · Elo 28% | 27%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23%26% | 26% |
| 2 – AVS win | 22%27% · Elo 40% | 27%· Elo 40% |
Attack vs defence
Penafiel attack vs AVS defenceattack1519defence1474+45 pts to the attack
AVS attack vs Penafiel defenceattack1484defence1508−24 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 8.8 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.564%51%
8.551%38%
9.538%32%
10.527%17%
Each team on its own
Penafielwe expect 6.0, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 69%
AVSwe expect 3.4, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 43%
Foulsleague average
Over 25.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 27.0 in this match, 25.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.24.563%60%
25.557%49%
26.551%43%
27.545%42%
Each team on its own
Penafielwe expect 14.5, league average 13.1 · chance of over 13.5: 57%
AVSwe expect 12.6, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 49%
Referee: 24.0 fouls per match on average (2 matches in our data)
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 47%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.576%70%
2.553%40%
3.531%25%
4.516%15%
Each team on its own
Penafielwe expect 1.6, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
AVSwe expect 1.2, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Penafiel matches average only 7.1 corners (league 9.5) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Penafiel: 4 wins in a row
- Penafiel: 19 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- AVS: newly promoted
- Penafiel: 27 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- AVS: 26 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:7 | 13 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:7 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Penafiel vs AVS?
Penafiel 1-2 AVS (half time 0-2).
Did the Penafiel vs AVS tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Corners: Under 9.5. The tip lost.