LaLigaMatchday 9
Celta vs Alaves: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS48%53%O2.542%50%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Celta3:4AlavesL
- Alaves0:1CeltaW
- Alaves1:1CeltaD
- Celta2:1AlavesW
- Alaves3:0CeltaL
Celta's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.3league 9.7under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.3league 4.4under 4.5: 58%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 25%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.0total 2.4Attack/defence1.5 : 1.1total 2.7
Celta : AlavesMost likely scores
Market1-114%1-012%0-010%2-19%2-09%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-010%0-07%2-19%2-08%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-112%1-01-012%1-010%0-00-010%0-07%2-12-19%2-19%2-02-09%2-08%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 78%72% | 72% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 74%73% | 73% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%74% | 74% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58%50% | 50% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 56%53% | 53% |
| Both teams to score: no | 52%47% | 47% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48%53% | 53% |
| 1 – Celta win | 45%47% · Elo 48% | 47%· Elo 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42%50% | 50% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 30%26% | 26% |
| X – draw | 29%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| 2 – Alaves win | 27%27% · Elo 25% | 27%· Elo 25% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22%28% | 28% |
Attack vs defence
Celta attack vs Alaves defenceattack1479defence1494−15 pts to the attack
Alaves attack vs Celta defenceattack1467defence1502−35 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 8.6 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.562%67%
8.549%53%
9.536%40%
10.526%31%
Each team on its own
Celtawe expect 4.7, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 34%
Alaveswe expect 3.7, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 24.9 in this match, 23.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.563%55%
23.557%48%
24.550%43%
25.544%36%
Each team on its own
Celtawe expect 11.6, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 48%
Alaveswe expect 13.5, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 66%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 3.8 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.573%69%
3.552%48%
4.533%34%
5.519%24%
Each team on its own
Celtawe expect 2.2, league average 2.1 · chance of over 2.5: 37%
Alaveswe expect 1.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 47%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Hugo GonzalezCelta3 matches with a goal or assist1 goal, 2 assistsWent on 33%Season 75%
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Celta: only 2 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Celta matches average only 7.5 corners (league 9.7) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Celta: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Alaves: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:8 | 11 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8:6 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Celta vs Alaves?
Celta are the favourites. Chances: Celta win 45%, draw 29%, Alaves win 27%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Celta vs Alaves?
Expected goals: 2.4 (Celta 1.4, Alaves 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 42%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Celta vs Alaves?
The chance that both teams score is 48%.
When is Celta vs Alaves?
The LaLiga match kicks off 18 October 2026, 15:15 (UK time).