LaLigaMatchday 8
Alaves 1-2 Ath Madrid: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
- Referee:
- Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Over 4.5Won59%
referee Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez averages 5.8 card points a match, league average 5.0; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total
Other tips
- Shots on Target – Ath Madrid: Over 3.5Won55%
Ath Madrid: 6.1 shots on target a match, Alaves's opponents had 4.7 on average, league average 3.8; over 3.5 shots on target in 7 of their last 7 league matches, Alaves's opponents had over 3.5 in 5 of 7 (51% of league matches)
For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Over 5.5Lost43%
referee Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez averages 5.8 card points a match, league average 5.0; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%56%O2.550%52%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.4both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Ath Madrid1:0AlavesL
- Alaves1:1Ath MadridD
- Alaves0:0Ath MadridD
- Ath Madrid2:1AlavesL
- Alaves2:0Ath MadridW
Alaves's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses1.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.7over 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 9.5 corners.won · ended 10
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.5league 4.4under 4.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 4.5 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 35%.won · ended 3
RefereeA. Quintero Gonzalez+0.4 yellow cards vs average23 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)66%BTTS yes0:1coverageleague 63% · H2H 3/5covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.0 : 1.7total 2.7Attack/defence1.3 : 1.4total 2.7
Alaves : Ath MadridMost likely scores
Market1-112%0-111%0-210%1-210%1-0—0-08%2-1—Attack/defence1-113%0-19%0-2—1-29%1-08%0-07%2-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%0-10-111%0-19%0-20-210%0-2—1-21-210%1-29%1-01-0—1-08%0-00-08%0-07%2-12-1—2-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 79%66% | 66% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75%76% | 76% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72%71% | 71% |
| 2 – Ath Madrid win | 54%40% · Elo 52% | 40%· Elo 52% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52%56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%52% | 52% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50%49% | 49% |
| Both teams to score: no | 48%44% | 44% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 46%60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28%29% | 29% |
| X – draw | 25%26% · Elo 27% | 26%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25%24% | 24% |
| 1 – Alaves win | 21%34% · Elo 22% | 34%· Elo 22% |
Attack vs defence
Alaves attack vs Ath Madrid defenceattack1469defence1570−101 pts to the attack
Ath Madrid attack vs Alaves defenceattack1600defence1495+105 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 55%close to the league averageunder 45%over
We expect 9.1 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.567%67%
8.555%52%
9.542%39%
10.531%30%
Each team on its own
Alaveswe expect 5.2, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 41%
Ath Madridwe expect 4.0, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 55%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 24.1 in this match, 23.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.558%55%
23.552%48%
24.545%42%
25.538%36%
Each team on its own
Alaveswe expect 11.8, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 51%
Ath Madridwe expect 11.5, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 48%
Referee: 23.8 fouls per match on average (23 matches in our data)+1.3 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 4.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.566%69%
3.545%49%
4.526%35%
5.514%25%
Each team on its own
Alaveswe expect 1.9, league average 2.2 · chance of over 2.5: 30%
Ath Madridwe expect 1.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Ath Madrid: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Ath Madrid: 22 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 17 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Alaves: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Ath Madrid: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ath Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:8 | 19 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:8 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Alaves vs Ath Madrid?
Alaves 1-2 Ath Madrid (half time 1-1).
Did the Alaves vs Ath Madrid tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Over 4.5. The tip won.