LaLigaMatchday 9
Espanol vs Ath Madrid: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 7hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS54%56%O2.553%52%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Ath Madrid4:2EspanolL
- Espanol2:1Ath MadridW
- Espanol1:1Ath MadridD
- Ath Madrid0:0EspanolD
- Espanol3:3Ath MadridD
Espanol's record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.4league 9.7under 9.5: 53%Expected corners: 9.4 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.3league 4.4under 4.5: 58%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 25%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.0 : 1.8total 2.8Attack/defence1.3 : 1.5total 2.8
Espanol : Ath MadridMost likely scores
Market1-112%0-110%1-210%0-210%1-0—2-1—0-07%Attack/defence1-112%0-19%1-29%0-27%1-08%2-18%0-0—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%0-10-110%0-19%1-21-210%1-29%0-20-210%0-27%1-01-0—1-08%2-12-1—2-18%0-00-07%0-0—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 80%67% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69%70% | 70% |
| 2 – Ath Madrid win | 55%41% · Elo 55% | 41%· Elo 55% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54%56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53%52% | 52% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47%48% | 48% |
| Both teams to score: no | 46%44% | 44% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 46%59% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31%30% | 30% |
| X – draw | 25%26% · Elo 25% | 26%· Elo 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%24% | 24% |
| 1 – Espanol win | 21%33% · Elo 20% | 33%· Elo 20% |
Attack vs defence
Espanol attack vs Ath Madrid defenceattack1460defence1572−112 pts to the attack
Ath Madrid attack vs Espanol defenceattack1601defence1485+116 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over
We expect 9.5 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.572%67%
8.560%53%
9.548%40%
10.536%31%
Each team on its own
Espanolwe expect 5.1, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 40%
Ath Madridwe expect 4.6, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 66%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 23.0 in this match, 23.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.551%55%
23.545%48%
24.538%43%
25.532%36%
Each team on its own
Espanolwe expect 12.3, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 56%
Ath Madridwe expect 10.6, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 38%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 58%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 42%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.564%69%
3.542%48%
4.524%34%
5.512%24%
Each team on its own
Espanolwe expect 1.9, league average 2.1 · chance of over 2.5: 29%
Ath Madridwe expect 1.4, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
Teams
- Ath Madrid7 matches in a row over 2.5 goalsaway: 6Went on 59%League 58%Model 53%Record 16
Players
- Jonathan DavidAth Madrid4 matches with a goal or assist3 goals, 2 assistsWent on 39%Season 100%
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Ath Madrid: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Espanol matches average only 7.3 corners (league 9.7) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Ath Madrid: 4 wins in a row
- Espanol: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Ath Madrid: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ath Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:8 | 19 |
| 12 | Espanol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11:11 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Espanol vs Ath Madrid?
Ath Madrid are the favourites. Chances: Espanol win 21%, draw 25%, Ath Madrid win 55%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Espanol vs Ath Madrid?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Espanol 1.0, Ath Madrid 1.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Espanol vs Ath Madrid?
The chance that both teams score is 54%.
When is Espanol vs Ath Madrid?
The LaLiga match kicks off 17 October 2026, 13:00 (UK time).