Super LigMatchday 9
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 12d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS66%O2.569%65%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Galatasaray3:0FenerbahceW
- Fenerbahce1:1GalatasarayD
- Galatasaray0:0FenerbahceD
- Fenerbahce1:3GalatasarayW
- Galatasaray0:1FenerbahceL
Galatasaray's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.2league 9.5under 9.5: 56%Expected corners: 9.2 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.2league 4.4under 4.5: 59%Expected yellow cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 19%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model2.0 : 1.6total 3.6Attack/defence1.9 : 1.5total 3.4
Galatasaray : FenerbahceMost likely scores
Model1-110%2-19%1-27%2-27%1-0—2-0—3-16%Attack/defence1-110%2-19%1-27%2-27%1-06%2-06%3-1—
ModelAttack/defence1-11-110%1-110%2-12-19%2-19%1-21-27%1-27%2-22-27%2-27%1-01-0—1-06%2-02-0—2-06%3-13-16%3-1—
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88%85% | 85% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%77% | 77% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 71%70% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69%65% | 65% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 52%53% | 53% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 52%57% | 57% |
| 1 – Galatasaray win | 48%47% · Elo 40% | 47%· Elo 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48%43% | 43% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31%35% | 35% |
| 2 – Fenerbahce win | 29%30% · Elo 32% | 30%· Elo 32% |
| X – draw | 23%23% · Elo 28% | 23%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12%15% | 15% |
Attack vs defence
Galatasaray attack vs Fenerbahce defenceattack1697defence1589+108 pts to the attack
Fenerbahce attack vs Galatasaray defenceattack1710defence1606+104 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 63%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 37%over
We expect 9.8 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.575%61%
8.563%50%
9.551%37%
10.540%27%
Each team on its own
Galatasaraywe expect 5.8, league average 4.8 · chance of over 4.5: 66%
Fenerbahcewe expect 4.8, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 68%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 22.7 in this match, 24.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.542%58%
24.536%52%
25.530%48%
26.524%41%
Each team on its own
Galatasaraywe expect 11.3, league average 12.3 · chance of over 12.5: 35%
Fenerbahcewe expect 11.2, league average 12.3 · chance of over 12.5: 34%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 65%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 35%over
We expect 4.5 in this match, 3.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.582%67%
3.565%44%
4.546%26%
5.530%15%
Each team on its own
Galatasaraywe expect 1.8, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 53%
Fenerbahcewe expect 2.8, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 75%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Fenerbahce score 2.8 goals per game
- Galatasaray: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Fenerbahce: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Galatasaray: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Fenerbahce: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16:11 | 16 |
| 4 | Fenerbahce | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19:6 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce?
Galatasaray are the favourites. Chances: Galatasaray win 48%, draw 23%, Fenerbahce win 29%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce?
Expected goals: 3.6 (Galatasaray 2.0, Fenerbahce 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 69%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce?
The Super Lig match kicks off 26 October 2026, 18:30 (UK time).