New England Revolution 4-2 Orlando City: prediction, tips and result

Sunday 20 September · 00:30

New England Revolution

1-1 3-1 1-2 2-1 2-1

4-2Full time(half time 1-0)

Orlando City

3-0 3-2 1-0 3-3 2-1

Stadium:: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Referee:: Serhii Boiko

Our tips

Main tip

Cards: Under 4.5Won66%

under 4.5 cards in 9 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 10 (54% of league matches); 2.7 cards a match in the hosts' matches, 4.0 in the visitors', league average 4.3

Other tips

Total Goals: Over 2.5Won71%
over 2.5 goals in 5 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings
Corners: Under 10.5Lost59%
under 10.5 corners in 7 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (57% of league matches)

For the brave

Cards: Under 3.5Lost48%

2.7 cards a match in the hosts' matches, 4.0 in the visitors', league average 4.3; referee Serhii Boiko averages 3.4 cards a match, league average 4.3

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloNew England Revolution139354%40%Draw22%28%Orlando City144024%32%favourite won

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS68%62%O2.571%61%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.3both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

19/07/202519/07/25New England Revolution1:2Orlando CityL
10/05/202510/05/25Orlando City3:3New England RevolutionD
14/09/202414/09/24Orlando City3:0New England RevolutionL
13/07/202413/07/24New England Revolution1:3Orlando CityL
07/10/202307/10/23Orlando City3:2New England RevolutionL

New England Revolution's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses4.2 goals per match

Cornersleague corners10.0league 10.0under 10.5: 59%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 13

Cardsleague cards3.8league 4.3under 4.5: 66%Expected cards: 3.8 in this match, 4.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 4.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 17%.won · ended 4

RefereeS. Boiko−1.1 cards vs average11 matches

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market2.2 : 1.4total 3.6Attack/defence1.8 : 1.3total 3.1

New England Revolution : Orlando City

Most likely scores

Market1-19%2-19%1-0—2-06%3-17%2-27%1-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-19%1-08%2-07%3-1—2-26%1-27%

MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-111%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-0—1-08%2-02-06%2-07%3-13-17%3-1—2-22-27%2-26%1-21-2—1-27%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	88%82%	82%
12 – no draw	78%76%	76%
1X – home team avoid defeat	76%72%	72%
Over 2.5 goals	71%61%	61%
Both teams to score: yes	68%62%	62%
1 – New England Revolution win	54%48% · Elo 40%	48%· Elo 40%
Under 3.5 goals	51%62%	62%
Over 3.5 goals	49%38%	38%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	46%52%	52%
Both teams to score: no	32%38%	38%
Under 2.5 goals	29%40%	40%
2 – Orlando City win	24%28% · Elo 32%	28%· Elo 32%
X – draw	22%24% · Elo 28%	24%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals	12%18%	18%

Attack vs defence

New England Revolution attack vs Orlando City defenceattack1500defence1446+54 pts to the attack

Orlando City attack vs New England Revolution defenceattack1549defence1511+38 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Worth knowing before kick-off

New England Revolution matches average only 2.7 cards (league 4.3) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
New England Revolution: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
Orlando City: 20 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
New England Revolution: 6 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
Orlando City: 7 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.

League form