New Mexico United 2-1 Phoenix Rising: prediction, tips and result

Sunday 4 October · 23:00

New Mexico United

2-2 4-4 0-0 2-3 0-1

2-1Full time(half time 1-0)

Phoenix Rising

0-3 1-3 2-1 1-1 2-1

Stadium:: Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park, Albuquerque, NM

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: 4 October 2026, 21:47. A published tip never changes.

Main tip

Corners: Under 9.5Won60%

under 9.5 corners in 6 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (54% of league matches); 9.3 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 6.9 in the visitors', league average 9.2

Other tips

Total Goals: Over 2.5Won62%
over 2.5 goals in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings; our numbers: 3.2 goals in total in this match, league average 2.6

For the brave

Corners: Under 7.5Lost35%

under 7.5 corners in 3 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (33% of league matches); 9.3 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 6.9 in the visitors', league average 9.2

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloNew Mexico United153742%50%Draw25%26%Phoenix Rising146933%25%favourite won

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS64%56%O2.562%53%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.2both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

12/04/202612/04/26Phoenix Rising3:0New Mexico UnitedL
05/10/202505/10/25Phoenix Rising0:1New Mexico UnitedW
11/05/202511/05/25New Mexico United1:2Phoenix RisingL
04/11/202404/11/24New Mexico United2:1Phoenix RisingW
10/10/202410/10/24New Mexico United1:2Phoenix RisingL

New Mexico United's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses2.6 goals per match

Cornersleague corners8.9league 9.2under 9.5: 60%Expected corners: 8.9 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.won · ended 8

Cardsleague cards4.4league 4.4under 4.5: 56%Expected cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 4.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.lost · ended 7

Refereeno referee data

Dutching(several bets at once)74%O2.51:1coverageleague 60% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.7 : 1.5total 3.2Attack/defence1.5 : 1.2total 2.8

New Mexico United : Phoenix Rising

Most likely scores

Market1-111%1-06%2-19%1-28%0-1—2-0—2-27%Attack/defence1-112%1-09%2-19%1-27%0-17%2-07%2-2—

MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-01-06%1-09%2-12-19%2-19%1-21-28%1-27%0-10-1—0-17%2-02-0—2-07%2-22-27%2-2—

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	84%77%	77%
12 – no draw	75%74%	74%
1X – home team avoid defeat	67%70%	70%
Both teams to score: yes	64%56%	56%
Over 2.5 goals	62%53%	53%
Under 3.5 goals	60%70%	70%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	58%56%	56%
1 – New Mexico United win	42%44% · Elo 50%	44%· Elo 50%
Over 3.5 goals	40%30%	30%
Under 2.5 goals	38%47%	47%
Both teams to score: no	36%44%	44%
2 – Phoenix Rising win	33%31% · Elo 25%	31%· Elo 25%
X – draw	25%26% · Elo 26%	26%· Elo 26%
Under 1.5 goals	16%23%	23%

Attack vs defence

New Mexico United attack vs Phoenix Rising defenceattack1536defence1494+42 pts to the attack

Phoenix Rising attack vs New Mexico United defenceattack1509defence1452+57 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 8.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 41%

We expect 8.0 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

7.554%51%

8.541%35%

9.529%30%

10.519%25%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

New Mexico Unitedwe expect 4.3, league average 4.6 · chance of over 4.5: 43%

Phoenix Risingwe expect 3.6, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 47%

Foulsleague average

Under 22.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%

We expect 22.7 in this match, 22.6 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

21.556%63%

22.549%51%

23.542%46%

24.536%40%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

New Mexico Unitedwe expect 10.2, league average 11.0 · chance of over 10.5: 44%

Phoenix Risingwe expect 12.6, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 58%

Offsidesleague average

Over 2.5 · 61%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 39%over

We expect 3.2 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

1.582%71%

2.561%55%

3.539%38%

4.522%16%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

New Mexico Unitedwe expect 1.9, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 54%

Phoenix Risingwe expect 1.4, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 39%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Phoenix Rising matches average only 6.9 corners (league 9.2) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
New Mexico United: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
Phoenix Rising: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form