Orange County vs Phoenix Rising: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 23hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%56%O2.556%51%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Phoenix Rising1:1Orange CountyD
- Orange County4:1Phoenix RisingW
- Phoenix Rising3:1Orange CountyL
- Orange County2:0Phoenix RisingW
- Phoenix Rising2:1Orange CountyL
Orange County's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.1league 9.2under 9.5: 58%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.2league 4.2under 4.5: 60%Expected yellow cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.7total 3.0Attack/defence1.4 : 1.3total 2.7
Orange County : Phoenix RisingMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-29%1-0—0-18%2-17%0-27%0-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-28%1-09%0-18%2-18%0-2—0-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-21-29%1-28%1-01-0—1-09%0-10-18%0-18%2-12-17%2-18%0-20-27%0-2—0-00-0—0-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%74% | 74% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 71%62% | 62% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66%71% | 71% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59%56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56%51% | 51% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 55%64% | 64% |
| 2 – Phoenix Rising win | 45%36% · Elo 33% | 36%· Elo 33% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44%49% | 49% |
| Both teams to score: no | 41%44% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34%29% | 29% |
| 1 – Orange County win | 29%38% · Elo 40% | 38%· Elo 40% |
| X – draw | 26%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%25% | 25% |
Attack vs defence
Orange County attack vs Phoenix Rising defenceattack1469defence1487−18 pts to the attack
Phoenix Rising attack vs Orange County defenceattack1530defence1432+98 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 61%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.552%51%
8.539%34%
9.527%28%
10.518%24%
Each team on its own
Orange Countywe expect 3.9, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 36%
Phoenix Risingwe expect 3.7, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 50%
Foulsleague average
Over 22.5 · 62%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 38%over
We expect 24.7 in this match, 22.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.568%63%
22.562%52%
23.555%46%
24.549%41%
Each team on its own
Orange Countywe expect 11.3, league average 11.0 · chance of over 11.5: 45%
Phoenix Risingwe expect 13.7, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 68%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 2.3 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.566%70%
2.540%55%
3.520%39%
4.58%17%
Each team on its own
Orange Countywe expect 1.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 29%
Phoenix Risingwe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 30%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Orange County concede 2.5 goals per game
- Phoenix Rising: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Phoenix Rising matches average only 7.1 corners (league 9.2) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Orange County: only 5 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 11 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Orange County: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Phoenix Rising: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Western Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Orange County | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 37:44 | 39 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 39:42 | 36 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Orange County vs Phoenix Rising?
Phoenix Rising are the favourites. Chances: Orange County win 29%, draw 26%, Phoenix Rising win 45%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Orange County vs Phoenix Rising?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Orange County 1.3, Phoenix Rising 1.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Orange County vs Phoenix Rising?
The chance that both teams score is 59%.
When is Orange County vs Phoenix Rising?
The USL Championship match kicks off 18 October 2026, 03:00 (UK time).