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Challenger GuayaquilChallenger 75Semifinalclaybest of three sets

Aboian vs Dellien 0:2: result and our tips

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Valerio AboianATP #258Elo 1717clay 1724
0:2final6:7(7) 2:6
Hugo DellienATP #107Elo 1858clay 1875

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 21.5Won63%

Where the number comes from: market alone 59% → with the players' profiles 63%

Dellien: 8 matches in a row under 21.5 games

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Won69%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Dellien: 8 matches in a row without a deciding set

Long shot
Total Games: Over 21.5Lost37%

Where the number comes from: market alone 42% → with the players' profiles 37%

Aboian: 6 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Valerio Aboian19%
Hugo Dellien81%

Elo: V. Aboian 30% · H. Dellien 70%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 V. Aboian10%
2:1 V. Aboian9%
2:1 H. Dellien22%
2:0 H. Dellien59%

First set

Valerio Aboian26%
Hugo Dellien74%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes31%
no69%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.0 · 52%market (no margin): 50%

The 20.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.576%25%84%
17.565%35%76%
18.556%44%68%
19.548%52%59%
20.543%57%52%
21.537%63%47%
22.533%67%40%

Sample: 2,293 matches

Games handicap

H. Dellien −5.545%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes18%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 20.0out · 21 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Valerio AboianHugo Dellien
2Aces2
2Double faults2
52%First serves in74%
70%First-serve points won66%
44%Second-serve points won68%
1/7Break points converted3/6
7/10Service games held9/10
58%Service points won66%
34%Return points won42%
66Total points won79

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

V. AboianTourH. Dellien
Service points won59%62%62%
Return points won42%38%42%
Service games held70%76%76%
Breaks of serve32%24%33%
Aces per service game0.430.25
Double faults per game0.190.13
Sets with a tie-break11%7%
Tie-breaks won8/167/12
Wins in straight sets41%71%
Matches in the sample6178

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Valerio Aboian

Hugo Dellien

Elo over the last year

Valerio AboianHugo Dellien

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

V. AboianH. Dellien
Hard court0–01–420%
Clay37–2461%50–2269%
Grass0–00–10%

Head to head

V. Aboian 0–1 H. Dellien

  • 17/04/26Winner: H. Dellien1:6 4:6

Road through the tournament

Valerio Aboian

Hugo Dellien

See also