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Challenger NingboChallenger 75Semifinalhardbest of three sets

Bar Biryukov vs Broady 2:1: result and our tips

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Petr Bar BiryukovATP #268Elo 1643hard 1659
2:1final6:4 1:6 6:3
Liam BroadyATP #212Elo 1660hard 1648

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Won71%

Where the number comes from: market alone 66% → with the players' profiles 71%

Broady: 17 matches in a row over 19.5 games; Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Bar Biryukov 12 of 20, Broady 19 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 26.5Lost33%

Where the number comes from: market alone 30% → with the players' profiles 33%

Bar Biryukov: 3 matches in a row over 26.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Petr Bar Biryukov34%
Liam Broady66%

Elo: P. Bar Biryukov 52% · L. Broady 49%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 P. Bar Biryukov20%
2:1 P. Bar Biryukov15%
2:1 L. Broady22%
2:0 L. Broady44%

First set

Petr Bar Biryukov38%
Liam Broady62%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 50%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.571%29%62%
20.563%37%54%
21.556%44%49%
22.550%50%42%
23.544%56%37%
24.539%61%35%
25.537%63%32%

Sample: 5,468 matches

Games handicap

L. Broady −3.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes42%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 26 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Petr Bar BiryukovLiam Broady
7Aces1
8Double faults0
53%First serves in76%
74%First-serve points won72%
59%Second-serve points won59%
2/5Break points converted2/2
11/13Service games held11/13
67%Service points won69%
31%Return points won33%
71Total points won73

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

P. Bar BiryukovTourL. Broady
Service points won64%62%64%
Return points won32%38%40%
Service games held81%76%79%
Breaks of serve16%24%28%
Aces per service game0.830.29
Double faults per game0.410.21
Sets with a tie-break22%15%
Tie-breaks won16/2810/20
Wins in straight sets52%61%
Matches in the sample5456

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Petr Bar Biryukov

Liam Broady

Elo over the last year

Petr Bar BiryukovLiam Broady

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

P. Bar BiryukovL. Broady
Hard court25–2056%26–1662%
Clay2–529%5–550%
Grass0–20%2–340%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Petr Bar Biryukov

Liam Broady

See also