Challenger CharlottesvilleChallenger 75Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets
Cassone vs Kozlov: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 12mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Murphy Cassone62%
Stefan Kozlov38%
Elo: M. Cassone 70% · S. Kozlov 30%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 M. Cassone40%
2:1 M. Cassone22%
2:1 S. Kozlov16%
2:0 S. Kozlov22%
First set
Murphy Cassone59%
Stefan Kozlov42%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no63%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 46%market (no margin): 51%
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.3
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 75% | 25% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 66% | 34% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 59% | 41% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 54% | 46% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 46% | 54% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 41% | 59% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 39% | 61% | 35% |
Sample: 5,979 matches
Games handicap
M. Cassone −2.552%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes34%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| M. Cassone | Tour | S. Kozlov | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 64% | 62% | 61% |
| Return points won | 37% | 38% | 42% |
| Service games held | 80% | 76% | 74% |
| Breaks of serve | 23% | 24% | 31% |
| Aces per service game | 0.53 | 0.24 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.22 | 0.30 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 21% | 10% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 13/26 | 6/15 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 64% | 53% | |
| Matches in the sample | 52 | 59 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Murphy Cassone
- 02/11/26WNicolas Mejia#115Challenger Charlottesville · R327:6 4:6 7:5
- 27/10/26LStefan Kozlov#271Challenger Sioux Falls · R326:4 3:6 0:3
- 20/10/26LKenta (2004) Miyoshi#422Challenger Fort Worth · R324:6 6:7
- 26/09/26LHarold Mayot#220Challenger Saint Tropez · SF7:5 2:6 2:4
- 25/09/26WDaniel Masur#365Challenger Saint Tropez · QF6:7 7:6 6:4
- 24/09/26WBilly Harris#232Challenger Saint Tropez · R167:6 6:4
- 22/09/26WClement Tabur#156Challenger Saint Tropez · R327:6 4:6 6:3
- 21/09/26WPatrick Zahraj#540Challenger Saint Tropez · Q26:2 7:5
- 20/09/26WHugo CarChallenger Saint Tropez · Q16:4 6:0
- 14/09/26WInaki Montes-de la Torre#191Challenger Rennes · R326:3 7:6
Stefan Kozlov
- 03/11/26WAndres Martin#359Challenger Charlottesville · R326:4 6:0
- 29/10/26LMax Hans Rehberg#248Challenger Sioux Falls · R165:7 4:6
- 27/10/26WMurphy Cassone#283Challenger Sioux Falls · R324:6 6:3 3:0
- 01/10/26LMitchell Krueger#361Challenger Columbus · R162:6 6:3 3:6
- 29/09/26WJames Kent Trotter#542Challenger Columbus · R326:3 6:2
- 22/09/26LColton Smith#218Challenger San Diego 2 · R324:6 2:6
- 15/09/26LDarwin Blanch#139Challenger Tiburon · R323:6 6:2 6:7
- 13/08/26LHarry Wendelken#213Challenger Brownsburg · R166:2 4:6 1:6
- 12/08/26WAidan Mayo#285Challenger Brownsburg · R326:3 5:7 6:2
- 25/07/26LZachary Svajda#75ATP Washington · Q15:7 1:6
Elo over the last year
Murphy CassoneStefan Kozlov
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| M. Cassone | S. Kozlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 27–2156% | 22–2052% |
| Clay | 0–0 | 7–654% |
| Grass | 1–325% | 3–175% |
Head to head
M. Cassone 0–2 S. Kozlov
- 27/10/26Winner: S. Kozlov6:4 3:6 0:3
- 16/11/25Winner: S. Kozlov6:7 5:7
Road through the tournament
Murphy Cassone
- 02/11/26WNicolas Mejia#115Challenger Charlottesville · R327:6 4:6 7:5
Stefan Kozlov
- 03/11/26WAndres Martin#359Challenger Charlottesville · R326:4 6:0