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Challenger Bratislava 2Challenger 125Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Cerny vs Sorger 1:2: result and our tips

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M. CernyATP #689Elo 1412hard 1428
1:2final6:0 1:6 3:6
Sebastian SorgerATP #388Elo 1355hard 1347

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: SorgerLost72%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Sorger: 4 matches in a row winning the first set

Other tips

  • Match Winner: SorgerWon78%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 78%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Cerny lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Sets: Over 2.5Won32%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Sorger: 3 matches in a row going the distance

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

M. Cerny21%
Sebastian Sorger79%

Elo: M. Cerny 61% · S. Sorger 39%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Cerny12%
2:1 M. Cerny10%
2:1 S. Sorger22%
2:0 S. Sorger57%

First set

M. Cerny28%
Sebastian Sorger73%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes31%
no69%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.5 · 52%market (no margin): 53%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.573%27%79%
18.564%36%71%
19.555%45%62%
20.548%52%54%
21.542%59%49%
22.536%64%42%
23.532%68%37%

Sample: 3,252 matches

Games handicap

S. Sorger −4.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes24%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 20.5out · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

M. CernySebastian Sorger
2Aces4
3Double faults3
57%First serves in60%
57%First-serve points won65%
43%Second-serve points won44%
4/9Break points converted5/8
6/11Service games held7/11
51%Service points won56%
44%Return points won49%
68Total points won77

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. CernyTourS. Sorger
Service points won60%62%58%
Return points won41%38%38%
Service games held71%76%68%
Breaks of serve29%24%23%
Aces per service game0.210.27
Double faults per game0.180.28
Sets with a tie-break12%12%
Tie-breaks won0/62/4
Wins in straight sets56%100%
Matches in the sample2214

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

M. Cerny

  • 12/10/26LDimitar Kuzmanov#363Challenger Olbia · Q23:6 2:6
  • 11/10/26WVadym Ursu#414Challenger Olbia · Q16:7 6:3 0:1
  • 05/10/26LDimitris Sakellaridis#541Challenger Palermo · Q26:3 1:6 6:7
  • 04/10/26WFabrizio Andaloro#778Challenger Palermo · Q16:4 6:1
  • 14/09/26LJohan Nikles#417Challenger Szczecin · Q23:6 2:6
  • 13/09/26WFilip Misolic#676Challenger Szczecin · Q14:6 7:5 6:4
  • 17/08/26LRadu Mihai Papoe#280Challenger Prague · Q22:6 3:6
  • 16/08/26WDusan Obradovic#497Challenger Prague · Q16:2 6:2
  • 28/07/26LNorbert Gombos#372Challenger Liberec · R321:6 6:4 2:6
  • 05/07/26LIgnacio CarouChallenger Trieste · Q16:1 3:6 2:6

Sebastian Sorger

Elo over the last year

M. CernySebastian Sorger

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. CernyS. Sorger
Hard court2–250%0–40%
Clay7–1139%2–820%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Upcoming matches

See also